Voting models

Voting models

1. Primacy factors - class, age, ethnicity, region, gender

2. Recency factors - issues, events, leaders, media attention

3. The Primacy Model

   • Suggests long term factors are more important than short term factors in deciding elections
   • Supporters of this view tend to see stability on electoral behaviour rather than volatilty

4. The recency model

   • Voting patterns are volatile
   • Processes such as embourgeiosement have led to class and partisan dealignment
   • Short term factors are more important
   • Average of 10 mil voters make their minds up in last month of general election

5. Social structures model

   • Supports primary model
   • Emphasizes importance of social cleavages (class, ethnicity, occupation and gender) on electoral outcomes
   • Suggests relative stability in voting behaviour as cosial factors change slowly

6. Party indentification model

   • Individuals identify with a party and stick with it
   • 1950's - over 90% of voters went Labour or Conservative
     • In 2010,only 65.1%
   • Those who strongly identify with a party dropped to 15% by 2001

7. Partisan dealignment - process of weakening party ties

8. Rational choice model

   • Sees voters as making considered, ratonional judgements on the basis of party policies, issues and party leaders
   • Retrospective judgement
     • Based on how parties have performed previously
     • Issues at the time affect this
       • 2010 election - Conservatives talked about how they would protect the economy after Labour, and Labour pointed out problems of Conservative plans to make significant cuts in public services
       • Reminds voters of administrations during the 1980's and 1990's
   • Prospective judgement
     • Based on the perception of how a party might perform
   • Spatial model
     • Parties are most likely to attract voters if they adopt a median point on the political spectrum
   • Valence model
     • Parties are liklely to have electoral success if they can convince voters of their delivery on key issues (economy, law, national security)

9. Voting context models

   • Nature of election, importance of he resulting institution and the electoral system in operation taken into consideration before vote
   • 2004 European elections, Conservatives most popular yet they were second to Labour in 2001 and 2005 general elections

10. Dominant ideology model

    • A dominant ideology benefits the ruling elite
      • Elite uses its influence in the media and business to orchestrate elections to its advantage