Flashcards
Mgmt206 Uncertainty
Cards in this deck (22)
- 1What is perfect information?When everyone knows everything (never happens)
- 2What is imperfect information? What are the two types?Nobody knows everything, either:
Asymmetric: people know different things
Symmetric: people know the same things (hardly happens) - 3What is uncertainty state?When nobody knows everything, we don't know with certainty but can use probability (e.g. coin toss)
- 4Why does time matter?Because the future is inherently uncertain, things can look certain but unexpected things can still pop up.
- 5What is a known known?When we know we have uncertainty in the future. We also know with certainty what the possible outcomes will be e.g. coin toss
- 6What is a known unknown?When we know we face uncertainty. But do not know with certainty what the possible outcomes could be
e.g. when will I die? - 7What is an unknown known?When we don't know, or refuse to accept that we face uncertainty. If we accept uncertainty then we will know with certainty the possible outcomes
e.g. explains irrational gambling - 8What is an unknown unknown?When we don't know we face uncertainty. We don't know the possible outcomes.
e.g. didn't realise there could be different coloured swans, there could now be yellow, green and pink swans. - 9What is ontological source of uncertainty?When uncertainty cannot be reduced with further investigation. e.g. coin toss
- 10What is epistemic source of uncertainty?When they know there is uncertainty but understand is limited due to:
Lack of data e.g. broadband
Imperfect structural factors e.g. climate change - 11What is technical source of uncertainty?The growing complexity in modelling?
- 12What is a source of uncertainty in a social context?When someone knows too little or knows too differently.
Actors that think about and frame the problem differently are less predictable and this increases uncertainty. - 13What is a cognitive source of uncertainty?When different individuals view the same problem differently.
When cognitive limitations lead to mistaken conclusions. - 14What are the 3 core questions?1. How uncertain are we?
2. How aware are we of uncertainty?
3. How do context and perception affect uncertainty? - 15What is the Bayesian view of probability?A state of information based on ones own opinion, belief, knowledge. Usually used in situations where there is no info on past occurrences.
- 16What is the frequentist view of probability?Historical data defined by frequency that something has happened.
- 17What is pure uncertainty? What is decision based off?No knowledge even about the likelihood of a state of nature occurring. Decision makers behaviour purely based on their attitude towards unknown.
- 18What is decision making under risk? What can decision maker do?When there is a degree of uncertainty and inability to control outcomes. Decision make can evaluate alternatives before making decision.
- 19What happens when the decision maker buys the information?Sharpens the uncertainties with respect to probable likelihood if each state of nature. Trade iff against cost of information acquisition.
- 20What is risk? What does it come to terms with? What 3 things does it include?The effect of uncertainty on objectives.A way of coming to term with our knowns and unknowns and making them tractable.
Includes:
1. events that may or may not happen
2. positive or negative impacts
3. uncertainties from ambiguity or lack of data. - 21What is an example that illustrates difference between risk and probability?Epidemologist = probability
Individual = risk - 22What are the six steps in the decision making process?1. Who is the decision maker?
2. What is the decision to be made?
3. What is the decision makers objective?
4. What are the choices?
5. What are the payoffs?
6. How does the action play out?
Information
- Description
- Flashcards on Mgmt206 Uncertainty, created by Hannah Lucas on 14/06/2015.
- Created by
- Hannah Lucas
- Views
- 0
- Rating