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Flashcards

GEOG 2032 part 2

Pippa Holman English 172 cards

What is the feedback loop for marshes and mangroves when sea levels rise?

Cards in this deck (172)

  1. 1Why is Cancun, Mexico a good example of climate change's effects for coastlines?- It is a microcosm of many costal/ human interaction issues
  2. 2What is the importance of the 5th IPCC report?- It has 4 reports within it
    1. Science part, showing the evidence for climate change (physical science basis)
    2. Impacts and vulnerabilities and adaptations
    3. Mitigation
    4. A Synthesis report
    Sea level change gets its own input (costal systems and low lying vulnerability is important) and all studies indicate high and growing exposure of low - lying areas
  3. 3What is the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ)?- A specific area and population up to 10m elevation
    - They constitute 2% of the world's land area, but contain 10% of the world's population (600m people)
    - 13% of the world's urban population (360m people)
  4. 4What do elevation and bath tub maps show?- Elevation maps are helpful to show low lying zones
    - Fringes of the continents are vulnerable
    - Bath tub maps are topographic maps that are flooded to certain elevations and level is as static - drowning over a certain height
  5. 5What are the figures associated to LECZs?- 65% of the world's cities with populations of less than 5mn people are in the LECZ
    - The global population exposed to 1 in 100 year extreme sea levels has increase by 95% (around doubled) between 1970 and 2010
    - Around 270 million people and $13trillion worth of assets is exposed to the 1 in 100 extreme sea level in 2010
    - $1.9 trillion (2002) of assets at risk to 1 in 100 year flood in 10 major port cities including Miami, Tokyo and Rotterdam (the largest port in the Western Hemisphere)
  6. 6Why is Asia particularly at risk?- Risk is a combination of hazard (likelihood of the event occurring) and vulnerability (in terms of people and assets)
    - It represents the greatest exposure in terms of population and assets
  7. 7What is the challenge for adaptation?- Costal net migration has largely taken place in flood and cyclone prone areas
    - Population and assets exposure is growing faster than the national average trends du e to custard migration, coastal industrialisation and urbanisation
  8. 8What are drivers?- The exposure to the issue
    - For climate change in coastal areas drivers include sea level, winds, waves and storms
    -Global mean sea level is not very helpful, as there's such a high regional variability
  9. 9What are the two representations of the future?1. Landscapes as static - just looks at flooding as a function of elevation
    2 Landscapes as dynamic - much more difficult to address and morphological change necessary to adapt
  10. 10How do natural coastal landscapes respond to forcing from drivers?* Landscape resilience - a dynamical physical definition (remembering the physical range of possibility)
    *However, infrastructure is preventing a dynamism and therefore not all landscapes are dynamic
    * Adaption occurs via 'building with nature'
  11. 11What are the facts of marshes and mangroves?- Both are types of tidal wetland and as a system their behaviours are similar (and are very rare)
    - Covers around 20M ha (including channels) of the planet (around 0.1% of the total land area)
    - Has been a prominent component of coastal landscapes for at least 4,000 years (over which sea level has risen in most regions of the world by more than 2m)
    - Observations of widespread wetland drowning are remarkably infrequent
  12. 12How come marshes and mangroves aren't drowned?- There are interactions between plants and their soil that allow wetlands to actively engineer their position within the intertidal zone in ways that enhance ecosystem persistence
    -
  13. 13What are marshes and mangroves?MARSHES - Big flat, flooded and characterised by a couple of species of grass. Salt marshes drowning from sea level have been an issue for ages, but has recently taken a huge media presence
    MANGROVES - Have large bases of arching roots
  14. 14What is the feedback loop for marshes and mangroves when sea levels rise?What is the feedback loop for marshes and mangroves when sea levels rise?
  15. 15How is the feedback loop for marshes and mangroves response to sea level change described for above ground?1. Mineral sediment settles out of the water column and onto coastal wetland soils during periods of tidal flooding
    2. Plant shoots influence mineral sediment deposition by slowing water velocities and add organic matter to the soil surface. Material dies and falls over, so sediment is added in this way too and provides nutrients for new growth
  16. 16How is the feedback loop for marshes and mangroves response to sea level change described for below ground?1.Balance of plant root growth and decay directly adds organic matter to the soil profile, raising elevation by sub-surface expansion
    2. The new root biomass will need space, so will push the platform upwards
  17. 17When are deposition rates highest and lowest for marshes?HIGHEST - in low elevation marshes, as they are inundated for long periods of time
    LOWEST - In high elevation marshes (rarely flooded)
    On marsh, soils form at a much higher rate than normal
  18. 18What happens with faster rates of above ground plant growth?1. It promotes greater standing biomass
    2. This slows water velocities on the marsh platform and lowers wave height, reducing erosion and enhancing mineral sediment deposition
    (Similar feedbacks occur between flooding, plant growth and sub -surface expansion operating in the root zone, creating highly organic soils that persist for 1000s years)
  19. 19What does the feedback for marshes and mangroves ultimately describe?That more extensive flooding associated with sea level rise should be accompanied by enhanced accretion
  20. 20What happens when the marsh/ mangrove feedback breakdown?- At the most basic level, they must build a soil elevation at a rate faster than or equal to the rate of sea level to survive
    - A coupled ecological -physical feedback
  21. 21What are the parts of the marsh/ mangrove system?1. Sea level rise rate
    2. Sedimentation rate
    3. Above ground plant growth rate
    4. Below ground plant growth rate
    + the wetland geography (location/ slope/ neighbouring land cover)
    IF ANY OF THIS BREAKDOWN, SO CAN THE FEEDBACK LOOP
  22. 22What can humans interfere with the marsh/ mangrove feedback loop?Direct: surface disturbance (agricultural conversion) and total destruction (development)
    Indirect: Sediment/ nutrient input/ subsidence/ species introduction - invasive species forage on the biomass. Sedimentation rate is manipulated by humans and can drastically reduce the amount reaching the coast (dams etc.)
    Nitrogen and phosphorous declined to systems from agricultural run off
    Ditched and drained for agriculture (no sediment or its compacted so unavailable - subsidence)
  23. 23How do the differences between static and dynamic models mean there could be some overestimation of marsh and mangrove vulnerability?STATIC MODELS - Do not incorporate the feedbacks/ assume a coast that does not adapt to RSL and simply tracks the topographic map on which they're based
    DYNAMIC MODELS - SLR makes for more frequent inundation and increased vertical accretion and then (depending on geography), they can move in land (replaces maritime forest). Efficient at land takeovers. If the slope is steep, can't move in very far though.
  24. 24What is the likely effects of sea level rise to marsh and mangrove systems?- Available space to marshes to move inland is site- specific and largely unknown
    - Even if land is 'available' it will mean a choice to allow marsh occupation (and loss of whatever is already there)
    - More problematic is coastal development, coastal land use conversion (especially for mangroves)
    - Mangroves can be 'worth' more in areas of population and assets - mangroves can buffer areas from storms as they reduce the energy
    - 20% of mangroves gone 1980 -2005 (FOE)
    - Mangroves being attacked by shrimp farms/ urbanisation and they can't recover
  25. 25What is meant by alongshore and cross - shore?What is meant by alongshore and cross - shore?
  26. 26What is the Bruun rule?What is the Bruun rule?
  27. 27What is meant by the shore face and the the wave base?Shore face - Where the wave action begins
    Wave base - The first place where the sea bed feels a wave passing overhead
  28. 28Why is the Bruun rule thought of as an equilibrium profile (+case studies for this)?- In the long term
    - Shoreline change rates in Norfolk over the long term show theres been not much change (apart from the spit that has grown dramatically
    - The difference between cliffs and barriers is largely a matter of slope
  29. 29What was the story of the man in the buggy?A guy drove a buggy along the swash of the beach (alongside). The media reported the beach had disappeared, but the beaches come back and the study mirrored this change
    This isn't Bruun as its a storm, not equilibrium event
  30. 30What is the role of AST?SHORT TIME SCALES - High spatial variability in shoreline- change signal
    LONG TIME SCALES - low spatial variability in shoreline change signal
  31. 31What occurs over the time scale of a single storm event?There is almost complete recovery within days - storms not so important for shoreline change, as 'mirrored' change suggest lots of storm impact is ephemeralWhat occurs over the time scale of a single storm event?
  32. 32What happens to the beach system when sea level rises according to the Bruun rule?- Wave base should be closer to shoreline
    - Upper part of the profile has to erode and the gravity takes it offshore
    - Eroded material drops down the shore face
  33. 33Where does the eroded material go according to Bruun as a response to sea level change?Sand either pulled off or thrown over the back. Shore face moves up and in with sea level rise - can't be sediment limited and is a very resilient systemWhere does the eroded material go according to Bruun as a response to sea level change?
  34. 34How are barrier beach systems made?How are barrier beach systems made?
  35. 35Why is it cliffs occur on some coasts and barriers on others?RELATIVE SLOPE IS IMPORTANT, of both slope of shore face profile and the shore face profileWhy is it cliffs occur on some coasts and barriers on others?
  36. 36What is meant by the shore face slope?- Straight line from top of vertical to the bottom of the cross- shore
    - The shore face profile follows the shore face slope
    - If it is waves that shape the shore face profile, they don't care for the landscape slope
  37. 37What is the biggest factor in determining wave base?The wave height
  38. 38What determines whether there will be a cliff for a particular beach system?When the landscape slope is steeper than the shore face slopeWhat determines whether there will be a cliff for a particular beach system?
  39. 39What happens with sea level rise and cliff systems?A change in sea level makes a cut in of the landscape slope, making a cliff
    - These HAVE to appear due to geometric rules
    - Cliff coastline systems deliver sediment to shorelines by eroding the landscape slope (via Bruun rule)
  40. 40What determines whether the beach system will be a barrier?When landscape slope is smaller than the shore face slope - the profile is translated up and in
    The top of the shore face profile above landscape slope profile, it gives extra material and creates a lagoon barrier through accretion - waves with material are thrown over the top and the height of the material is a product of how high the waves are
  41. 41How does a barrier change in response to sea level change?How does a barrier change in response to sea level change?
  42. 42Whats the difference between passive inundation and Brunn retreat?Whats the difference between passive inundation and Brunn retreat?
  43. 43How do waves break?- Rolling waves to breaking waves occurs as the wave orbitals offshore become more elliptical as they react to the roughness of the bed (this makes it slower as deals with the friction) then the top rolls and breaks
  44. 44What climatic changes could have effects on rocky coasts?*Rocky coasts and shore platforms consist of around 75% of the worlds coastline
    *Higher sea level could lead to increased cliff erosion rates
    *Stronger precipitation events could give less cliff stability (strong groundwater flux and pore pressure)
    *Ecological responses to warming can give restricted environmental gradients and changes in species distribution, abundance and resilience, leading to widespread vulnerability of the system
  45. 45What is meant by a coupled system?- The way the natural world was thought of as fundamentally separate from human processes, but the reality is they merge together
    - Deltas behave in a completely different way to how they would without human elements
    - A double arrow between the two is very important, as shows one influences the other at various stages, theres a cyclical nature to the processes and mechanisms
  46. 46What are examples of human and natural systems?HUMAN - agriculture, mining, housing, highways (although human system not very well described)
    NATURAL - fluvial, aeolian, glacial, littoral, hillslope
    (GT of sediment moved is investigated from them both - humans move more than all natural processes together)
  47. 47What do Werner and McNamara say about the dynamics of coupled human/ landscape systems?- Coupling should be strongest where natural process make significant stretches of human occupied land vulnerable to large changes and damage and markets assign value to the land and drive measures to protect it from damage
    - Processes occur over decades and force response in changing the conditions as markets drive investment in profits
  48. 48What is meant by the coupled human-landscape system?What is meant by the coupled human-landscape system?
  49. 49How is the coupled system shown on coastlines?- Natural processes will always occur for coasts and as soon as things are built, they're vulnerable. Sediment can be moved to protect the area, but it is then redistributed by the natural processes, but humans only ever feel the large events (over and above the protection)How is the coupled system shown on coastlines?
  50. 50How can landscape processes effect the economy?(Werner and McNamara)
    - DIRECTLY - causing losses, changing construction costs
    - INDIRECTLY - Influencing the market behaviour as there is feedback to predictions by agents inside the simulation and this alters subsequent decisions by the model agents
    - Can also affect political activity through altering landscape processes and change the shape and structure of the land on which national processes operate
  51. 51What is the importance of the coupled system?- Captures and represents dynamics otherwise absent in either system in isolation
  52. 52What are the characteristic dynamics over long time scales for flood events?- Small floods can be filtered out
    - Protection facilities are developed in disaster prone areas
    - Increased channelisation gives increased flood size and increased damage from infrequent and large events
    - The frequent small flood events are filtered at the expense of the rare big ones
  53. 53What is meant by agent based models?- Show a range of challenges of predicting landscapes of the future
    - Forecasts of the human/ landscape system has to take into account the challenges, modifications and alternatives to the market system
    - The challenge comes in representing the human dynamics and human landscape coupling beyond the simplifying effects of the profit motive
  54. 54What is the differences in coupling between different deltas worldwide?1. The Yukon delta - Has a low coupled strength as no human influence has kept the processes natural
    2. Louisiana delta - Has natural process, development and damaging events (hurricanes) which need rebuilding after (so covers all 4 elements of the coupled system), so a high coupled strength
    3. Netherlands (a delta itself) - fundamental programme at keeping the sand on beaches at the 1990 level. Artificial dune systems and flood gates etc. control the whole system (for a 10,000 year event), which is thought to make the coupling lower
  55. 55What does it look like if the 3 deltas are plotted against their coupling strength and the scale of intervention?What does it look like if the 3 deltas are plotted against their coupling strength and the scale of intervention?What does it look like if the 3 deltas are plotted against their coupling strength and the scale of intervention?
  56. 56What is important about the magnitude of damage for the Netherlands in particular?The more intervention could mean investment and this means if there was to be a flood event the magnitude of damage could be horrendously higherWhat is important about the magnitude of damage for the Netherlands in particular?
  57. 57What is meant by the position on the magnitude of damage graph being subject to change?- Position for the Netherlands changed as political and social changes meant that very good defence systems were made
    - Other systems can move, but once anthropogenic influences have been subjected on the system there is no going back
    - Trends are now tending towards very strong coupling
  58. 58What is meant by coupling strength?- Dynamic property of human- landscape systems
    - Occurs as the economic markets also change - Miami being a prime area for very expensive property
  59. 59What is meant by costal risk?- The potential for storm hazards (storm surge- induced flooding/ wave attack) that could cause adverse effects on human health/ well being, economic conditions, social, environmental and cultural resources, infrastructure and the services provided in the
    *** Climate change means the probability of a hazard is not spatially and temporally fixed***
  60. 60What is the equation for risk (NRC, 2014)?RISK = HAZARD x CONSEQUENCE
    *Where consequence = f(E,V) a function of exposure and vulnerability and represents the impact
    *Exposure = density of people/ property in hazard zones
    *Vulnerability = A systems potential to be harmed
  61. 61How can exposure to vulnerabilities change?- Through mitigation techniques
    - Risk is always wanted to be reduced
    - Soft vs. hard engineering approaches are very different ways of dealing with risk
  62. 62What is the vulnerability of deltas and how is this being mitigated?- Deltas are hotspots for oil and gas, so see lots of subsidence (reducing the volume of the ground)
    - If deltas grow and sustain themselves with enough sediment input they have to look at potentially natural ways to mitigate (marsh regeneration)
  63. 63What is the difference between a natural delta, an engineered delta and a delta applied with nature- based engineering?What is the difference between a natural delta, an engineered delta and a delta applied with nature- based engineering?
  64. 64What determines delta elevation?- Calculated relative to local mean sea level
    1. Aggregation rate - volume of sediment delivered and retained
    2. Eustatic sea level rate - changes in global sea level - IPCC says around 2/3mm/yr or higher
    3. Natural compaction - sediment settling and squeezing water out of pores - liquefaction (wet sediment is heavy and pushes the crust down)
    4. Accelerated compaction - anthropogenic (subsurface mining of oil/ water/ gas)
    5. Mass loading - causing surface adjustment
  65. 65What are the balances for delta elevation?If imbalanced, system can be sediment starved, as seen in some of the largest rivers and deltasWhat are the balances for delta elevation?
  66. 66Why do deltas subside?1. Sediment supply - if lacking. Normally from upstream, but also from the ocean. Dams, levees and fewer distributary channels ruining this
    2. Anthropogenic extraction
    3. Mass loading
    4. Relative SLR
    5. Vegetation disturbance - loosing marshes and mangroves means there's less to trap sediment. Important flood defence systems too as buffers the energy of the water pushing onshore
  67. 67What is seen globally in the changes in deltas (Goisan et al., 2014)?- Delta drowning unprecedented in last 7,000 years
    - Rivers carrying less mud than 100 years ago (-98% for Nile, -94% for Indus)
    - There is more sand and more land above sea level, but less mud.
    - Historically, many sediment loads were boosted by deforestation and agricultural processes (now not occurring as much)
    - Most large and medium sized deltas aren't growing fast enough to keep up with SLR
  68. 68What is needs to be researched for delta dynamics?Not much is known, so looking into how water and sediment get redistributed through a delta network real time and the uptake by ecosystems
    - Assessment of sand/mud and organics budgets
  69. 69What is the difference for mud and send chemically within deltas?IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR SEDIMENT RETENTION - f(grain size, delta structure and vegetation)
    - Sand is inert
    - Mud has chemical charge and cohesive properties, there are thresholds for movement and it can stay in suspension for a long time. Its crucial but its role is poorly understood
  70. 70How can the flows of sediment be changed?How can the flows of sediment be changed?
  71. 71What was the conventional coastal engineering idea compared to the new ecosystem based coastal defence?What was the conventional coastal engineering idea compared to the new ecosystem based coastal defence?
  72. 72What is meant by conventional engineering?- Thought to be the ultimate solution to combat flood risks and shoreline erosion
    - Lots of dikes, levees and dams
    - Deltas in wealthy countries which now spend £££ see more risk long term as energy costs increase
    - Time scales of years to decades to implement
    - Excels local SLR and increases long term flood risk
  73. 73What is meant by absent engineering?- Channel network
    - Tidal inundations and river flooding
    - Sand and mud supplied during innundatopn and trapped by wetland veg
    - Vertical building and maintenance of deltas to match SLR
  74. 74What have been the impacts of humans converting deltaic wetlands to urban areas and using conventional engineering techniques?- Created flood protection schemes
    - DIKES at channel banks mean theres no room for natural wetlands and wetlands are disconnected from rivers and cannot be built vertically with SLR
    - Upstream DAMS cut river sediment supply and slows wetland building downstream
    - SUBSIDENCE from compaction and extraction
    - EMBANKMENTS - no storage for normal floods, pushing remaining water into remaining channels
  75. 75What has been seen during nature based engineering projects?- RESTORATION of wetlands between rivers and settlements has provided extra water storage, slows down flood propagation and reduces flood risk. Also builds up sediments and regains elevation in embanked and lowered land to survive long term SLR
    - Solutions typically self sustaining and cost effective
  76. 76What has been seen in managed realinment projects in the UK (Humber and Medmerry)?- Allows the land to go back to nature and reclaim costal land
    - Humber is tidally reconnected to N.sea, when elevated water levels come up, now hopefully they have somewhere to go
    - Medmerry, a £28m project completed in 2013, the largest open coast project in Europe and heralded a big win by the EA
  77. 77What happened in the Netherlands after a big storm breached a large dune system?- 1960s = storm
    - Marsh complex developed so no money has to be spent on conventional engineering and it now protects the area
    (De Slufter)
  78. 78What has been seen in the North Carolina banks dune system?- During 1930s, public works projects in the depression had people working the whole 300 km stretch and planted pioneer grasses along the length
  79. 79What is used in Japan as a form of flood defence?Tetrapods!!What is used in Japan as a form of flood defence?
  80. 80What is the 'sand motor' project?- A real time physical experiment
    - Delivered a huge volume of sand and is watching it as it shifts pattern
    - Sand moving up the coast
    - Seen naturally in Benacre Ness (UK) where sand is moving North up the coast
  81. 81What is the difference between climate change deniers and skeptics?DENIERS: Deny that climate change is happening or that humans are having an impact on the climate (can misrepresent data intentionally)
    SKEPTICS: Important group who challenge orthodoxy and highlight model inaccuracies and uncertainties, show other causes of climate change (sun spots), show the relative importance of climate change and are the critical process of scientific debate. They can also have vested interests (economic boosting) and will modify their opinions
  82. 82Where can climate denial be seen in everyday life?*The novel 'state of fear' was required reading at the Senate committee on environment and public works 2003-2007
    *Americans bad at thinking they have a right to a certain way of life and don't want to change it
    *Some are so scared of the data produced they ignore it
    * A lot of what is learnt is from the media. The BBC has to show a balance and this may undermine reports and lure a false sense of security
  83. 83Who are the leading climate skeptics?Prof Mike Hulme - Suggests climate models too uncertain and shouldn't be used to allocate adaption funds
    Prof Hans von Storch - Concern about climate is culturally constructed and this construction influences how we think about it
    *Both agree that poor use of science and scientific information comes from the blurring of science and policy - the politicisation of science
  84. 84What are three factors that influence out thinking on how we should take action on climate change?1. Our belief systems about the causes, consequences and solutions to climate change
    2. What we consider to be dangerous
    3. Unless we work in or study climate science, how we are sold the 'climate change' story through the media
  85. 85How does the individual decide their feelings on climate change?- Depends on the way position is viewed in society and who has the power to make decisions
    - Your ideology - the way you look at the world and tell stories about it
    - It is however important not to get lost in a sea of relativism to the point substantialised scientific research is thrown out
  86. 86What are considered the 4 categories of people in relation to their view on climate change?1. Fatalists
    2. Hierarchists - Think they just have to follow authority (government policy)
    3. Individualists
    4. Egalitarians    What are considered the 4 categories of people in relation to their view on climate change?
  87. 87What are the 4 ways that people can identify wth climate change?- TECH - think that technology will solve the issue
    - JUST - think that it is capitalisms fault
    - ENV - think the planet is very fragile and needs to be protected from humans
    - RISK - Those thinking there is a risk of an apocalyptic scale from climate change
  88. 88How do people that believe in TECH see climate change?- Carbon capture and storage programmes being developed
    - An alliance of oil companies, US. department of Energy, the EU, gov. of Nroway etc.
  89. 89How do people that believe in JUST see climate change?- Humanitarian NGOs are looking to right past wrongs
    - NGOs report on groups that may not have a say or know that climate change is an issue - there is need to do something for these people too
    - Oxfam urging G8 to cut emissions and provide support to help poorer nations adapt
  90. 90How do people that believe in ENV see climate change?- Make lots of clean, green energy
    - UK has best access to wind and wave power in EU
    - Could generate £3bn and create 160,000 jobs and put us in charge of our own energy supply
    - Still struggling to make up 4% though...
  91. 91How do people that believe in RISK see climate change?- Those that think there is apocalyptic issues for the future urge governments to spend now on disaster prevention
  92. 92What do individual ideologies affect?- The way we see climate change (as a hurdle/ injustice..) etc.
    - The way we chose to act (technology vs. emissions reduction)
    - People often confuse their position on climate change and become angry at other peoples responses - lots of conflicting views
    **This means politicians and climate negotiators should be explicit about their own beliefs**
  93. 93What is the issue with all the conflicting views for policy makers?- Countries have to negotiate what to do about climate change at many levels (UNFCCC COPS --> national policy arenas)
    - There are unspoken assumptions, confusion of beliefs and the scientific findings to contend with too
  94. 94Why is it important that what is meant by danger is properly explained?- There then gives policy makers the chance to mitigate against particular defined thresholds
    - To limit dangerous interference in the climate system, governments have agreed to limit global rise in average temp to 2'C (3.6F) above pre industrial level, which IPCC thinks means new CO2 emissions from fossil fuels must not exceed 1trillion tonnes
    - Many places are in danger, but some currently, some in the future and it all depends on vulnerability
  95. 95What are 2 of the things that have to be considered when making policies?Whether we want to address
    1. Current danger
    2. Future danger
  96. 96What does the stern review look at?- A discounting pattern where it looks at what you have now vs. what you've got in the future.
    - It is very much in favour of doing something about climate change now
  97. 97What has given set backs to climate change respect since 2009?- Errors in the IPCC report
    - Global recession
    - Hacked emails - many respected scientists said some stupid things and had their labs closed down (inc. admitting leaving data out to make it look better). 10 years of emails from UEA's climatic research unit
    - 2010- 11 saw a decline in climate change media coverage, theres previously been huge build up to the COP 15 in Copenhagen, 2009
    - Oceania has the highest media coverage- but maybe the most at risk still?
  98. 98What has been the effects of a falling media coverage?1. Lack of public interest (could be good thing as makes the issue less sensitive and personal)
    2. Deniers have quietened, Paris 2015 a success, but now after the US election, it is a bit uncertain
    3. Media failing to represent the science of climate change
    4. International negotiations must deal with a critical issue: what proportions of effort and money should we invest in adaption vs. mitigation
  99. 99What is the UNFCCC?United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
    - 1992 Earth summit in Rio turned to the creation of the framework in 1994
    - There are country level obligations within it to
    1. Keep GHG down
    2. Protect ecosystem biodiversity
    3. Food security
    4. Allow economic security
    - Treaty sets plan for future updates 'protocols' set within mandatory emission limits, but to start there were no mandatory limits on GHGs for individual countries or enforcement mechanisms
    - Wants change within a suitable timeframe to meet its goals
  100. 100How does the UNFCCC work?- COP - Conference of the Parties, an annual meeting for the Parties of the Convention
    1. Asesses progress
    2. Develops mechanisms for implementation
    3. Develops new protocols
    4. Agrees on the next steps
    (there was reduced trust in the meeting after Copenhagen)
  101. 101What is the hierarchy for the UNFCCC?What is the hierarchy for the UNFCCC?
  102. 102What is the SBI?- Assesses the effective implementation of the Convention
    *Has a national inventory of anthropogenic emissions of all GHGs - collects data from all governments , looks at whether policies work or not and lays out the facts
    *Steps are taken to implement
    *Info used to calculate global emissions trends
    *Effects of policies and measures on anthropogenic emissions
  103. 103What is the IPCC?- Set up in 1988 by UNEP and WMO
    - Around 2000 scientists who assess the best available scientific and technical information on climate change and advise SBSTA
    - Broken into 3 working groups
    1. Physical science
    2. Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation
    3. Mitigation
  104. 104What is the Kyoto Protocol?- Sets binding GHG emission reduction on CO2, CH4, nitrous oxide, HFCs and PFCs for industrialised countries, excluding aviation and shipping
    - December 1997 and into force Feb 2005. 192 states signed into and ratified
    - USA hasn't signed and Canada withdrew in 2011
    - Annex 1 countries (rich ones) collectively agreeing to reduce GHG emissions by 5.2% on average in period between 2008 and 2012 (relative to 1990)
  105. 105What are the flexible Kyoto mechanisms?1. Emissions trading
    2. Clean development mechanism
    3. Joint implementation
    Overall aim to lower costs of emissions reduction by allowing parties to reduce emissions or remake carbon in other countries
  106. 106What is the issue of integrity in the Kyoto principle and how is this avoided?There is need to avoid the sense of 'a right to emit' and exchange fictitious credits....
    So to participate, countries MUST:
    1. Ratify the protocol
    2. Calculate an assigned amount in terms of tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions
    3. Have a system of estimating emissions and removals of GHGs
    4. Have national registry to record/ track the creation. movement of Emission Reduction Units, Certified Emission Reduction, Assigned Amount Units and removal units (RMU)s
    5. Annually report information on emissions and removals
  107. 107What is meant by the cap and trade mechanism of emissions trading?- Cap on the total amount of some GHGs from factories/ power plants
    - Cap is reduced over time so total emissions fall
    - Companies then trade permits
    e.g. EU ETS (european emissions trading scheme) launched 2005 by 25 EU countries to achieve KP compliance
  108. 108What is the CDM of KP?Clean Development Mechanism (article 12)
    - Emission reduction projects in poor countries earn CERs
    - Rich countries can buy these to meet Kyoto targets
    - Aim is to achieve sustainable development and allow annex 1 countries to cheaply comply with KP targets
  109. 109Where was the first CDM project?Rio - 2004
    - Aimed to reduce methane emissions from landfill by capturing it to generate electricity, which also had direct health and environmental benefits for the local community
    - Expected to reduce CH4 by 31,000 tonnes a year
    - There has since been many more similar projects, expansions and buy ins from EU countries
  110. 110What is meant by joint implementation (JI)?- Allows one industrialised country to earn emission reduction units from an emission reduction/ removal project with another annex B party
    - Projects cane be in any sector
    - The must be considered supplemental to domestic actions
    - Sellers of ERUs are primarily Russian and E.Europe where buyers are from W.Europe with tighter KP targets
  111. 111What happens at UNFCCC COPs meetings?- 2 weeks over November and December
    - 6 day weeks 6am - 10pm
    - Group meetings and negotiations
    - Plenary negotiations
    - Country teams range from 1 (tuvalu) to 300+ (china/ USA)
    - 6 official UN languages include Arabic, Mandarin, English, French, Russian and Spanish, many translators
    - People attend from industry, researchers, reporters, activists and NGOs
  112. 112What small member groups are there?1. Alliance of Small Island States
    2. G77 (+China)
    3. EU
    4. Environmental Integrity Gorup (EIG)
    4. LEDCs
    5. OPEC - Organisation of Petroleum Exporting countries
    6. Umbrella group
  113. 113What is the ASIS wanting?43 countries vulnerable to SLR - pushing the hardest emission reductions (85%) below baseline by 2050. Maldives had previously held a parliamentary meeting underwater
  114. 114What does the G77 want?130 members of developing states - will cut emissions from 'business as usual' ONLY IF developed countries lead
  115. 115What does the EU want?27 members, president voices a collective view. Drives emissions reduction targets and support to developing countries
  116. 116What does the Environmental Integrity group want?Mexico, Switzerland and S. Korea, highlighting environmental issues, pushing for higher renewable targets and more low carbon technology
    Mexico - doing a lot as high poverty and population. Working on low carbon development, planting forests
    Switzerland - Encourages less resource exploitation
    S. Korea - Promotes new renewable energy and energy conservation/ efficiency - one of worlds 20 largest economies in environmental investment
  117. 117What do LEDCs want?50 poorest countries
    - Work together to build on raising finances for adaptation and capacity building
    - Looks at article 6 (education and training)
    - Fund from UNFCCC helps LDCs reach climate change goals by supporting the productions of NAPAs (National Adaption Programmes of Action)
  118. 118What does OPEC want?Venezuela/ Algeria/ Nigeria/ Libya/ Saudi Arabia/ Iran/ Kuwait/ Quatar/ UAE/ Indonesia
    - Focus on compensation for the adverse effects of mitigation/ reduced fossil fuel use if demand for oil declines
    - Article 4.1 in place eto employ appropriate methods with a view to minimise adverse effects on the economy
  119. 119What does the umbrella group want?- A loose coalition between Canada/ USA/ Iceland/ Russia/ Norway/ Ukraine/ Australia/ NZ
    - Pushing for voluntary measures
    - Argue its unfair for developed countries to make the largest emissions reductions
    - All 'major emitters' should make cuts INCLUDING rapidly industrialising countries (BRICs)
  120. 120What are the 3 main areas of climate policy?1. Impacts - Focuses on the measuring, modelling and prediction of impacts
    2. Adaption - Actions taken to address the consequences including, reducing vulnerability, building adaptive capacity, disaster risk management and creating social transformation
    3. Mitigation - actions taken to minimise causes of climate change, addressing efficient use of energy, use of renewables, carbon sequestration through sinks and reduced emissions from land use management (REDUCING GHGs)
  121. 121What is meant by climate policy?Legislation to encourage and promote adapting and mitigating climate change
    (A warming world will also generate spontaneous adaption (2003 heatwave))›
  122. 122What is adaption as defined by the IPCC?- Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects
    (Adaption should allow us to prepare, cope and bounce back from climate changes - it can come from individuals, local authorities and government)
  123. 123What are the 4 key elements of adaption?1. Reduce vulnerability - Introduce air cooling into over- heated care homes
    2. Build adaptive capacity - Teach about CC and how to adapt
    3. Climate risk management - Have a flood risk plan for homes + buy home insurance (UK Gov hadn't implemented much resources to flooding....)
    4. Build climate resilience - Replant costal wetlands to reduce coastal flooding
  124. 124What is done about building capacity?1. Modelling and downscaling research - UK regional climate model is very detailed as just for the UK, but takes information from global models
    2. Make investigative plans
    3. Learn
  125. 125What is the UK Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP)?- Works with regional climate models and adaption planning - communities, institutions and businesses
  126. 126What is important to consider as a user of information?- Probability levels that should be adopted to cause policy change have to be very carefully considered
    - (IPCC has to be v. careful with the language it uses as it can't predict the true future
  127. 127What is the importance of risk management?*If there is proper planning, there should be a good idea of how to deal with the issues
    *Hazard - response - recovery - mitigation - preparedness cycle
    - There is a difficult pathway of recovery for LEDCs a lot of the time
  128. 128What is meant by resilience?Social and ecological systems that are able both to absorb shocks and recover from them
  129. 129What happens with resilience?- In practice, improved resilience is often hard to achieve
    - With CC, in the UK there's to be changes in where many species can live - retaining landscape diversity and connection of habitats is very important
    - (Removal of riparian trees hasn't been good - have to think how the system joins)
  130. 130What has happened in the aim for resilience for agricultural landscapes?1. Maintain or increase habitat heterogeneity
    2. Maintain species diversity
    3. Protect natural processes
    4. Reduce other pressures
  131. 131What is important about the motivations to adaption?- Mainly response to current hazards, but need to think about it before events occur
    - There are potential population pressures. In the drier SE, water suppliers are seeming to be making supplies more resilient
  132. 132What are the limits to adaption?1. Social and individual characteristics - social and individual conservation very expensive and stems from not wanting to change frame of mind
    2. Limits may relate to the goals that are set
    3. Loss of place and culture - experienced but subjective limits to adaption
    4. Uncertainty about the future - need not to be....
  133. 133How are limits to adaption dependent on the goals of the adaption?- Thames barrier is designed to be responsive to SLR and flood risk in London to 2100 - the goal changes dependent on recent science (to prepare for 50cm rise then for 79cm etc.)
    - SLR estimates increasing to 79cm now would be beyond the means of the Thames barrier (choice of number to work with a major limitation)
  134. 134What are cultural limits to adaptation?- Loss of identity in Arctic communities as traditional means of hunting are made impossible by climate change (Arctic sea ice shrinking)
    - Hunting on icepack with sleds and dogs no longer as safe and viable option
    - Having to change their cultural practices
  135. 135What is the current state of adaption?1. Adaption comprises a wide range of actions (reducing vulnerability to redesigning society)
    2. UK adaption is occurring in most sectors already
    3. Adaption mostly occurring through build up of adaptive capacity and individual instance of responses to hazard threats
    4. There's limits to adaption, although these can mainly be managed
  136. 136What does article 2 of the UNFCC objective state?- Policy responses have to be about adaptation and mitigation
    - Ultimate objective is to stabilise GHGs to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system within a timely manner to allow ecosystem adaption
  137. 137What is the UK Climate Change Programme?2002: Renewables obligation - All electricity suppliers to sell a % from renewable sources. 2002 = 3%, 2010-2012 = 10%, 2015-2016 = 15%
    - Housing and community grants - EST (energy savings trust)
    - Business and public sector emissions reduction support (Carbon trust helps to see where and how they can improve)
    - Nottingham declaration - Emissions reduction plans for local authorities
  138. 138What is the 2008 climate change act?- It's the duty of the secretary of state to ensure net UK carbon account for all 6 Kyoto GHGs for the year 2050 is 80% lower than 1990
  139. 139What does the 2008 climate change act implement?1. UK wide climate change risk assessment every 5 years
    2. National Adaption Plan (NAP) which is reviewed every 5 years to address CC
    3. Gov. can demand public authorities/ providers to report how they've assessed climate change risks and what they've done
    4. Adaption Sub Committee oversees progress on 'Adapting to Climate Change Programme' and advises on national risk assessment
  140. 140What are examples of UK mitigation policies?1. Support - Carbon (business) and energy savings trust (home)
    2. Transport - bus and cycles lanes
    3. Technology - trialling carbon capture and storage. Trialling cloud seeding (since discontinued)
    4. Public opinion - asking individuals to come forward with their ideas (each individual has different ideas from what their educated about)
  141. 141What is the Woking case study as showing how climate change policy is delivered at a local level?1. Planning/ regulation - re-evaluating how and where things are built
    2. Education/ promotion - ensure awareness of adaption individuals are to take
    3. Green spaces - replacing annual bedding with herbaceous species adapted to thrive in drier conditions
    4. Water - promotion of water efficiency to help cope with flooding or drought
    5. Community and residents - develop a collective community response
  142. 142What is the UKs take on policy?- UK an early actor on impacts, mitigation and adaption
    - Investments in science through monitoring and databases (Hadley centre/ IPCC etc.)
    - Political/ financial resources committed
    - Local policy likely to be mix of adaptation and mitigation
  143. 143What are the main points about Bangladesh?- Six seasons, each comprising of two months
    - Monsoon (around 80%) (June, July, August into late September)
    - Average pre monsoon temp = 33' -36'C and a max of 38' and 41'C
    - Annual rainfall - (1,600mm - 2,300mm)
    - Every year there is a strong cyclone
    - Rainfall decreasing and temp increasing for pre-monsoon
  144. 144What are the issues of climate change in Bangladesh?- Bangladesh is steep - flat-out glaciers floods into the Bay of Bengal
    - Water logging occurs from the monsoon season/ glacial flood
    - Drought
    - Cyclone and storm surges
    - 5-6'C temp rise 28-29'c to at least 30'C for the whole year
  145. 145How much of the Bangladeshi community is dependent on agriculture?- 84% total population is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture
    - Massive food production loss already (and into the future)
    - Strong cyclones moving to hurricane situations
    - Correlation between rice production drops and disasters
    -Bangladesh the 4th major fish producing country in the world - Protein consumption of the population down as the main fish stocks are down
    - Wild fish much declined
    - Waterlogged areas used for tomatoes and potatoes
    - Crop calendar is from mar/apr (planting period - the pre monsoon) and aug - harvest (in monsoon/ post monsoon)
    - Sea level rise increases salinity (no good for crops)
  146. 146What has been the changes in Bangladesh climate?What has been the changes in Bangladesh climate?
  147. 147What has happened in Bangladesh for drought?- Around 1mn tonnes loss of food grain in 1997 and 50% food grain damaged in 1982 for flood in Bangladesh
    - For rising temperature (1 -2') saw 28% and 68% decrease of rice and wheat production respectively
  148. 148What are the cyclones in Bangladesh?- 27'C of sea surface temperature, above 27'C makes it stronger
    - Severe cyclones moving to hurricane situations
    - Schools used as cyclone centres (Government announcements to protect against storm surges and cyclones)
  149. 149What have been the adaption options in Bangladesh from climate change?1. Rain water harvesting
    2. Floating bed agriculture
    3. Deep tube well
    4. Cyclone centre
    5. The dredging of the river from deposited beds
    6. Intense irrigation - modern crops need it
    7. Shifting of crop varieties
    8. Pesticides
  150. 150What is mitigation?'Technological change and substitution that reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output. Although several social, economic and technological policies would produce an emission reduction, with respect to climate change'
    IMPLEMENTING POLICIES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSIONS AND ENHANCE SINKS
  151. 151What are the ways of mitigating against climate change?1. Not creating as much
    2. Create artificial sinks
  152. 152What has happened to CO2 concentrations?- The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in the last 800,00 years
    - CO2 concentration have increased by 40% since pre industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions
  153. 153What did the 2005 conference at the Hadley Centre suggest for the point of climate change becoming dangerous?- Stabilising GHG concentrations at 550 ppm CO2, likely to be around 2'C warming
    - Stabilising at 450 ppm, 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 2'C
    - Stabilising below 400 ppm relatively high certainty of not exceeding 2'C
    - 2'C latched onto politically (stems from Paris COP)
  154. 154What are the main mitigation strategies?1. Energy supply - switch to renewables
    2. Energy demand - Improve energy efficiency (insulate loft/ cavity wall insulation)
    - Conserve energy (cycle/ turn down thermokarst)
    3. Sequester carbon - maintain/ create carbon sinks (UK peatlands are a main source)
    - Manage land (reventing peat bogs from drying out to avoid methane loss)
  155. 155W- Global- scale alteration of one or more facets of the earth system to counter greenhouse warming
    - Take carbon out the atmosphere (various mechanical capture methods and ocean fertilisation (biological drawdown))
    - Reduce solar radiation input (Aerosols - volcanic dust effect/ cloud enhancement/ sunshades in space)
  156. 156What are biofuels?- One of the renewable approaches. Uses contemporary organic material to produce energy
    * biogas
    * 'food crops'
    * Non - food herbaceous and woody crops
    *algal sources
    *waste organic soils
  157. 157What is CCS?- Sequestration (in ocean/ deep aquifers) of captured carbon (scrubbed from power stations or other point sources - scrubbers can liquify CO2 and pump it into the ground)
    - 'carbon capture and storage' - UK has 2 schemes - Peterhead in Scotland a depleted N. sea gas field to capture and sequester CO2 into the ocean
    - Capturing carbon from the air - widespread capture of CO2 from wind (then storage)
    1. Un-minable coal: low potential
    2. Hydrocarbon reservoirs (higher potential (45% to 2050)
    3. Deep saline aquifers: uncertain, could be high potential
  158. 158What is the ocean fertilisation with iron idea?- Iron deficiency identified as constraint on plankton productivity
    - Fertilise ocean/ encourage productivity, take up CO2, biological pump takes carbon to the deep ocean
    - Several experiments have taken place (including SOIREE and SOFeX)
    - Studies haven't confirmed expected removal of large amounts of carbon to deep ocean
    - Estimates suggest vast areas of ocean would have to be modified for perhaps a 30% reduction in yearly emissions (unknown ecological effects)
    - Below the thermocline, CO2 drawdown to an ocean sink (not viable, as issues with unknown nature of ocean/ air interface)
  159. 159What are the radiation- blocking ideas?- Inject particles to upper atmosphere (a 'magnified Pinatubo' effect)
    - Probably use sulphur
    - Leads to global cooling
    - May reduce rainfall as a side effect/ likely to generate acid rain and will need continual inputs or temperature will rise rapidly leading to heat shock
    - Volcanes area blip in the general trend as get washed out, but not quasi - permanently
  160. 160What is the sunshades in space idea?- Thousands of tiny space ships in a stable orbit at the Lagrange point reflecting solar radiation
    - Lagrangian points are positions in an orbital configuration of two large bodies where a small object affected only by gravity can maintain a stable position relative to the two large bodies
  161. 161What is the idea blocking radiation from the sun?- Volcanoes are a blip in the general trend, as aerosols get washed out, effect is over (not quasi permanent)
    - Upper atmosphere to be intentionally polluted (sulphur makes for acid rain)
    - It would have to be continued as otherwise would get hot again very very quickly
  162. 162What does the table about the efficiency, affordability, safety and rapidity say about each of the potential approaches (including the 'emergency stop' idea of what would happen if projects are stopped)?What does the table about the efficiency, affordability, safety and rapidity say about each of the potential approaches (including the 'e...
  163. 163What are the issues with geoengineering?- Almost all approaches have ethical and technical flaws
    - Questions about what would happen if no mitigation actions were taken/ how safe and productive the options would be/ what happens if something goes wrong/ who would implement the projects on a global scale
  164. 164What is natures CO2 sink?- Photosynthesis
    - 6CO2 + 6H2O + energy (sunlight) --> C6H12O6 + 6O2
    - Time, pressure and heat make dead biomass turn to soils/ peat to lignite and coal (a fossil carbon)
    - Peat gets incorporated into the geological basis
  165. 165What are the alternative energy options?- Renewables
    - Low carbon options include nuclear/ carbon capture and storage from fossil fuel plants
    - Biofuels are derived from contemporary (not fossil) plant products (simplistically though of as carbon neutral)
    - Wood is a biofuel and humanity's oldest fuel - questions to whether it is carbon neutral
  166. 166What are the different generations of biofuels?1st - Bioethanol - maize, wheat, sugar can (food crops) have high energy concentration in the seeds that can be used (Midwest US corn in abundance for fuel)
    2nd - Using the whole plant (not the critical seed) or non - food crops (wood) or waste products (wood/ straw/ chip oil). Miscanthus as a fast growing grass often used
    3rd - Using non- food biomass (specifically bred feedstock crops such as algae, which can be very oily)
  167. 167What are the issues with biofuels?- Cars can't have more than 5% ethanol otherwise mucks the engine up
    - Agriculture is heavily subsidised and massive changes can have major knock on effects
    ROYAL SOCIETY 2008 REPORT:
    Express concerns about the implications for biofuel production of
    1. Market demand (or lack of it)
    2. Legislative pressure and subsidies
    The consequences of this can come from
    1. Organised infrastructure (or lack of it(
    2. Changes in land use (social/ biophysical effects)
    3. Actual carbon saving when subject to proper carbon accounting ( would growing and processing biofuels actually reduce CO2 of petrol production and burning?)
  168. 168What has to be thought of for choosing the type of crop for biofuels?1. Is there an effective means of conversion?
    2. Can the farmer profit?
    3. Can the biofuel compete with fossil fuel in the market?
    4. What is the 'life cycle' carbon saving?
    5. What are the local and regional consequences of a major shift in land use?
    6. What are the impacts on the global economy?
  169. 169What are the society/ economy equity issues with biofuels?- IN INDIA, Jatropha Grows on wasteland, should be win/ win, but in practice current economics favour richer farmers, while poorer ones become marginalised (even further than before)
    - IN MEXICO - US maize affected by legislation on biofuels and lots of maize crops taken over - price of maize then spiked and Mexicans sold it to US - huge deprivation in Mexico
    *Crazy economics and lack of power for landowners meant prime food production zones were used as biofuels (unsustainable). Global food/ future markets show spikes in prices
  170. 170How are waste products used to make biofuels?- Biodiesels are made from waste
    - Biogas uses waste products to generate methane and is a low tech solution
  171. 171What is algal digestion?- Thin tanks with lots of sunlight mean algae grows really fast and are processed and have the oil squeezed out of them
    - The spatial footprint is low and there is high cycles for continual supplies
    - The carbon trust is supporting algal fuel development - worlds largest project to happen in UK
  172. 172—

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Flashcards on GEOG 2032 part 2, created by Pippa Holman on 02/12/2016.
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