The Asian Century

The Asian Century

1. JEFFREY J. SCHOTT

   • "Asia won’t dominate the twenty-first century"
     • The concept of regional predominance seems fragile or possibly irrelevant
       • ASIA
         • The differences between the major countries both economic and political, will look away attention from global ambitions.
           • Asian countries are world leaders in terms of aggregate GDP, with the exception of Japan, Singapore, and South Korea
             • United Nations’ Human Development Index
               • China ranks 101st out of 186 countries, Indonesia ranks 121st, and India ranks 136th
                 • Asia is a complex and dynamic part of the world economy
                   • Asia's size commands attention but its development challenges limits its global leadership potential
                     • Asia won’t dominate the 21st century --> any country or continent will
                       • But Asian countries will be important players in the world economy as partners of the U.S

2. CHONG-PIN LIN

   • "Two factors argue for an Asian Century."
     • In this new century, unlike ever before economics, not politics or military power takes command.

3. DANIEL SNEIDER

   • "A trans-Pacific economy binds together North America and Asia."
     • We are not living in the second decade of an Asian Century
       • We are at the start of a Pacific Century
         • Rather, there is a trans-Pacific economy which binds together North America and Asia
           • From Singapore to Sweden
             • The heart of the Pacific Century is located in Silicon Valley
               • The Pacific Century rests on the construction of a new economic architecture
                 • make Apple’s iPhone
                   • The software and engineering design take place in the Valley, specialized parts in Germany or Japan
                     • The Pacific Century depends on the hardworking cultures and labor of the region

4. MARK A. DEWEAVER

   • "No Asian Century until China reforms"
     • Hard to imagine an Asian Century without a strong China
       • China’s economy is facing structural problems
         • Without a solution with the absence of radical political change
           • The way: reduce the role of the state in the economy
             • The leadership finds this solution unacceptable,
               • Better a combination of stricter Party discipline and a variety of minor administrative changes
                 • Make the system more efficient
                   • It wasn’t possible then and it’s not possible now
                     • Improving productivity a job for private sector entrepreneurs, not government
                       • Chinese economy will have to continue to rely on investment
                         • Decline of investment = economic stagnation

5. RICHARD N. COOPER

   • "I would place higher odds on the United States than on China"
     • Presumptuous to talk about a century belonging to any region or country
       • it will be for all humankind
         • Asia: Its largest member is non-European Russia
           • Dysfunctional polity & economy --> rents from high oil and gas production and prices
             • South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore are now rich and in serious demographic decline
               • Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand can continue to do well forsome years
                 • India and Vietnam show promise, difficulty finding a coherent vision of the future and policies to achieve
                   • Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria will do well to hold together
                     • Pakistan Afghanistan and SaudiArabia with a murky future
                       • China will grow faster than the rest of the world for a decade or two, slower than in the past
                         • Many engineers graduating but they are at the level of vocational school --> trained but not properly educated.
                           • China is aging rapidly =challenges in the coming years
                             • Assign the century to a place = U.S

6. KISHORE MAHBUBANI

   • "The world is now going to witness a new golden era in Asia with the opening of the Asian mind"
     • China’s economic growth has slowed, India’s too & other Asian economies are following this
       • Paul Krugman: “China is in big trouble. …You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is how bad the crash will be.”
         • Krugman doesn’t understandAsia
           • Singapore miracle
             • Chinese economy: a result of bad economic management or the decision to change directions
               • 3 factors should drive continuing Asian
                 • 1.- Policymaking has improved all over Asia
                   • Chinese Communist Party developed one of the world’s best meritocratic systems for selecting new leaders.
                     • 2.- Invested enormously in education
                       • 3.- A massive explosion of cultural confidence in many Asian societies

7. RICHARD JERRAM

   • "China risks falling into the middleincome trap, and without China there can be no Asian Centur"
     • Asia is unlikely to compete with U.S or the EU.
       • Economic, political, social, cultural, or ideological =Asia is simply too diverse.
         • Economies of the region will reach a scale to rival the developed world?
           • Asia is larger than the U.S or Europe, but still far behind in per capita income
             • Over the past half-century, only Taiwan has gone from the bottom half of the per capita income scale to the top quintile.
               • Many become stuck in the middle-income trap
                 • China is a prime candidate to repeat that experience

8. WILLIAM R. RHODES

   • "The structure, character, and dynamics of the global economy will change profoundly."
     • Forces of China,Japan, India, and South Korea
       • Assume a rising share of global GDP
         • Economic growth --> U.S and the European Community, smaller global GDP going forward
           • If trade protectionism can be avoiided
             • we shall see intensification of economic inter-dependence
               • We shall see economic inter-dependence
                 • Advances in new technologies
                   • Living standards in Asia will rise faster,but it will take very long time before they are on par with those in the U.S or Wester Europe
                     • Quality of education, healthcare and social security will be political priority for all governments
                       • We may see Asia in this century attaining a prominent economic position
                         • To be hoped enhanced cooperation and interdependence

9. RICHARD KATZ

   • "Asia is not a coherent economic in GDP or political bloc"
     • 2001 was the year that Asia overtook the United States.
       • GDP numbers don't translate into an “Asian Century” in any geopolitical or geoeconomic sense
         • Nor GDP by itself translate into the kind of technological predominance
           • Neither Japan nor India has any history of acting as a successful hegemon
             • Japan’s economic weight in the world is declining, and China’s rise is a delicate operation
               • Asia’s economy is integrated with the economies of the West
                 • Rise of East Asia has been not just by exports to the West, but by foreign direct investment from Western countries that brings technology, distribution networks etc
                   • Japan’s exports to China are more related with China’s exports to the U.S and Europe than they are to China’s internal growth

10. BERNARD CONNOLLY

    • "The century is Chinese, not Asian, and the jury is still out."
      • Britain had, after the Glorious Revolution in England
        • Model more conducive than others to scientific inquiry, technological advance, and the economic exploitation of science and technology
          • Transplantation of the key elements of the British model to the U.S --> further improvement there
            • Also ability to set global rules to its own advantage
              • if China doesn't achieve furthersubstantial “catch up,” its weight in the world will decline.
                • U.S the late 1830s - 1840s, over-investmen -->preceded the first real depression
                  • Many of that features are replicated in China
                    • “Asia” cannot follow the U.S. model any more than “Europe” can
                      • What matters is if China can follow the U.S. model

11. ANDREW DEWIT

    • "This will be a century of AsiaPacific cooperation and collaboration"
      • More realistic to be a century of Asia-Pacific cooperation and collaboration
        • Energy and urbanization
          • The more we accelerate and diversify our collaboration and innovation
            • the bigger public-private gains in economic areas

12. DIANA CHOYLEVA

    • "India has the best chance to lead the way"
      • An Asian Century = economies that are very different & with major challenges over the next decade
        • Of the 3 big Asian economies, India has the best chance to see growth
          • Global financial crisis marked the end of the road for China’s export- and investment-led growth model
            • Beijing needs painful reforms, which means weak growth
              • China could only grow at half
                • India doesn’t suffer from excessive domestic savings and has a genuine domestic demand potential = economy forward
                  • India needs to industrialize fast and now has the high savings rate to enable investment in infrastructure and productivity-enhancing capital.
                    • Main obstacles to raising the economy’s growth = remain corruption, bureaucracy, and supply-side rigidities

13. GENE H. CHANG

    • "Asia will be the economic giant but not the world leader"
      • Asian economies are growing much faster on average than those in North America or Europe
        • Asia accounts for more than half of the world population
          • Expectation that Asia will be an economic giant --> 60 percent of the world GDP
            • Asia doesn't seem to be the world leader
              • Asian countries are not homogeneous
                • A great diversity in culture, history, ethnicity, religion, and political systems
                  • Even for those countries that are similar in culture and ethnicity, mutual mistrust still exists = India & Pakistan, or China & Japan
                    • Populations of China, Japan, Korea, and so forth are aging faster than those in America andAfrica
                      • Political instability, ethnic conflict, and corruption may lead to great crises --> impeding economic growth

14. JOHN LEE

    • "The notion of an “Asian Century” does not make sense"
      • The so-called “Asian Century”, because of the continued growth in China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and India over the next few decades.
        • Rapid growth in poor countries with a young working population is relatively easy
          • Requirements include stable government and society
            • Great challenge for Asian countries = “middle-income”
              • The only way to do --> improvements in productivity
                • Requires appropriate institutions ---> Asian countries simply do not yet have
                  • Highly unlikely that all of Asia’s major developing countries will success, the failure in one or several of these Asian countries is high.