Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

1. Stage 1: HIGH STATIONARY

   • High BR & HIGH DR
     • High BR
       • Children = high economic and social value
         • Viewed as economic assets
           • Extra workers for agricultural purposes
       • High infant mortality rate (IMR)
         • Needed to give birth to more children in order to ensure survival into adulthood
       • X family planning
       • Religious beliefs
         • X contraceptives & abortions
     • HIGH DR
       • Poor sanitation and healthcare standards
         • Encourages illness & disease to run rampant
       • War & related instability
       • Poor housing
         • Live in small, overcrowded, unsanitary spaces
           • Spread of illness and disease

2. STAGE 2: EARLY EXPANDING

   • HIGH BR & FALLING DR
     • High BR
       • Difficult to change mindsets of people
         • Strong religious beliefs
         • Belief in importance of large families
     • Falling DR
       • Implementation of specific healthcare measures
         • Vaccination & improved sanitation
       • Introduction & progress in medical technology
         • Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scanners

3. STAGE 3: LATE EXPANDING

   • BR FALLS & LOW DR
     • BR FALLS
       • Better SOL
         • Increase in sanitation standards
         • Better medical healthcare
         • Changing status of women!!!
           • Increased literacy rate
             • More job opportunities
           • More dedicated & focused on careers instead of family
             • Marry later
               • Reduce number of childbearing years
                 • = less opportunities of pregnancy
           • More freedom & choice in their family planning
         • Mechanisation of society
           • X longer heavily agriculture based
             • Less need for children as economic assets (agricultural workers)
           • More capital used in replacement of human workers
             • Machines work more efficiently
     • LOW DR
       • Better medical technology/facilities
         • Children survive beyond infancy
           • IMR decreases
             • Life expectancy increases
       • Better sanitation
         • Better houses, less overcrowded = more hygienic

4. STAGE 4: LOW STATIONARY

   • LOW BR & LOW DR
     • Fertility rate falls below replacement value of 2.1 children per woman