A1: Natural Population Change (i)

A1: Natural Population Change (i)

1. Fertility Measures

   • Crude Birth Rate
     • Total number of live births per 1000 of the mid-year population per year.
   • General Fertility Rate
     • Total number of live births per 1000 women in the normal reproductive age groups (15-44) per year.
   • Total Fertility Rate
     • Average no. of children a woman will have during her reproductive years - assuming she lives until then.
   • Age Specific Fertility Rate
     • Number of live births per 1000 women within specific age bands per year.
   • Net Reproduction Rate
     • Average number of daughters born per woman.

2. Mortality Measures

   • Crude Death Rate
     • Total number of deaths per 1000 of the mid- year population per year
   • Age Specific Mortality Rate
     • Number of deaths per 1000 of the population within specific age bands per
   • Infant Mortality Rate
     • Number of deaths per 1000 children in the first year of life.
   • Maternal Mortality Rate
     • Number of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births.
   • Life Exoectancy
     • Number of years a person is expected to live

3. Natural Change

   • % net gain or loss to a population each year. Difference between the BR and the DR.

4. Replacement Level

   • Number of new births needed to maintain current numbers in a population, assuming there is no migration (2.1 is the common figure)

5. Doubling Time

   • Number of years that it will take a population to double if the current rates of natural increase are maintained.

6. Global patterns in TFR's

   • TF varies from 6.8 in Burundi and Angola to 1.3 in Germany
   • Generally higher in LEDC's than MEDC's
   • Much of South and Central America, India, Indonesia, South Africa and parts of central Asia have TFR's of 2.2 to 2.9.
   • Africa has the highest total TFR's, with most Sub-Saharan African countries have values greater than 5.

7. Global patterns in mortality rates

   • MEDC's vary from 2-9 per 1000 - lowesr in Australia
   • Slightly higher in N.America and W.Europe due to ageing populations
   • Former communist countries in E.Europe and Russia have rates between 13- 29 per 1000.
   • Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, have highest death rates
   • Middle East and N.Africa - LE was 43 years in 1950's - now to 70 years

8. Global Trends in population change

   • MEDC
     • Improvements in health care - lower MR. General affluence +women working more in workforce have lowered TFR leading to gradual ageing population
     • Europe
       • Concern over ageing pop. + pop. decrease
       • pop. of 736M : projected 685M in 2050 - lower TFR
       • France, Finland, UK, Spain, Italy - gov. funded financial incentives to help young families.
       • Influx of migrants increases TFR
     • North America
       • TFR = 2.1
       • High fertility of growing Hispanic pop. - TFR of 3.0
   • LEDC
     • Africa and Middle East
       • Highest fertility level + youthful age structure
       • TFR = 4.9 SSAfrica = 5.4
     • Asia
       • pop. 4 Billion - increase 1.4 B between 2008 - 2050 even under Anti-Natalist policies eg China
       • Youthful pop. structure throughout - average DR of 7/1000
       • India TFR = 3.6 China TFR = 1.6
         • Predict India pop. to double in next 50 years

9. In 20th century, 90% of pop. growth took place in LEDC's - high TFR's.

10. MEDC - ageing pop. + fertility decline