Energy Security

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Energy Security

Energy Sources

Renewable energy: capable of natural regeneration on a human time scale

Non-renewable: energy source that is finite on a human time scale

Recyclable energy source: reprocessed energy e.g uranium in nuclear fission can be used repeatedly

Primary energy: found naturally

Secondary energy: primary energy that has been converted to a more convenient form e.g electricity

Distribution of energy reserves

Russia and Eastern Europe: high reserves of natural gas and coal, amongst the top 10 countries for oil and uranium, energy surplus

Europe: dependent on energy imports, low energy efficiency, lack of Fossil fuels, energy insecurity

Middle East: large oil reserves e.g OPEC, unsustainable regimes affecting FF supply, energy surplus

North America: large coal reserves, opportunity to exploit oil reserves in the Arctic, Antarctic and other sensitive areas, huge energy consumption (outweighs supply), energy insecurity

Sub-Saharan Africa: dependent on foreign TNCs to exploit supply e.g oil in Nigeria, energy poverty

Physical factors affecting energy reserves

Climate: e.g the need to keep cool in hot countries (and vice versa) by way of AC, which significantly increases energy consumption in these countries

Availability: e.g geology determines the availability of oil and coal

Local variations: e.g cloud cover and win speed affect availability of solar and wind energy

Solar variations: e.g stronger sun and longer sunshine hours along the equator (and seasonal variations)

Human factors affecting energy reserves

Energy infrastructure: e.g in LDCs, the infrastructure often doesn't exist to extract energy reserves such as oil

Energy affordability: e.f in some parts of the world where forms of energy are available, many people cannot afford to use it

Cultural preferences: e.g traditions keep people using traditional forms of energy such as open coal fires for heating

Public perception: do they trust the technology e.g Nuclear and Chernobyl 1986 and Fukushima 2011

Global energy security

Energy Security: the extent to which a affordable, reliable and stable energy supply can be achieved

Factors affecting energy security:

Natural hazards

Political instability

Dependency on imports

Rage of energy sources used

Costs of energy

Factors affecting UK's energy security

Gas availability: diminishing North Sea gas (going to run out in 50 years), 2004: 90% of UK's gas produced in UK vs 2020: less than 10%, 20% from Norway, 40% from rest of EU, lead to decreasing political power UK and increasing of gas rich nations e.g Russia (supplies 30% of EU gas

Oil availability: volatile oil prices, potential for political instability between UK and oil producing states, peak oil reached in USA in 1970, global peak oil in 2006?

Global warming and renewable energy: restrictions on coal usage, limited amount of sun for solar panels, concerns over nuclear safety, waste and cost of building nuclear plants

Global energy consumption

Factors leading to increased consumption:

Population increase

Improves Standards of living

Industrialisation & economic development

Rural-Urban migration

Future trends: increased usage by China & India, Western Europe more efficient, energy consumption in developing world doubles by 2050, increases by 1/3 in developed world, amount used by developed and developing world equal by 2050

China: energy consumption parallels that of its economic development - it has quadrupled since 1980

Energy secure: largest producer of coal (reliant of coal for 70% of its electricity generation), large oil fields (3% of world's oil reserves), no longer self sufficient on oil but can afford to import from Middle East, relies of renewable energy e.g HEP (inc 3 Gorges Dam) accounts for 16% of its energy production, plans to build HEP dams on all major rivers in China

Energy insecure: dependency on coal (vulnerable to global warming sanctions), gov being pressured to find alternatives to coal to reduce pollution and carbon footprint, has reached peak oil (runs out in 2 decades?), oil deposits in Tarim Basin are difficult and expensive to exploit (remote location and difficult geology), deepwater exploration for oil treated by conflict with Vietnam and the Philippines, HEP threatened by natural hazards e.g Sichuan earthquake, natural gas is very expensive and difficult to build pipelines from gas fields in Western China while liquefied gas is in short supply

Energy pathways: the flow of energy from producer to consumer

Oil pathways: Middle East exports the most oil (4000 barrels to Japan, 3000 barrels to Eur, 2000 to N America), former USSR exports 7000 barrels, S America exports 2,500 to USA and Eur experts just 408 barrels to N America

Gas pathways: main gas pathway is trans-Siberian pipeline from Russia to E. Europe, new gas pipeline planned from Middle East to E. Europe to decrease dependency on Russia

Factors which make energy pathways vulnerable:

Geopolitical connections between countries (Ukraine/Russia)

War (Gulf war, Iraq war)

Strikes by energy workers

Damaged infrastructure e.g from natural disasters

Disintegration of infrastructure e.g pipelines

Terrorism

Disrupting energy supplies: Russia and Europe

Russia and Ukraine gas dispute: Ukraine's gov change in Nov/Dec 2004 had pro-western policies (as opposed to pro-Russian) leading to Russia quadrupling its gas prices which Ukraine's go refused to pay. Gazprom (51% owned by Russian gov) cut of Ukraine's gas supply

Europe's dependency on Russia: Russia supplies a large proportion of Eur's gas (piped through Ukraine) so the flow of gas to Euro fell by 40% in some areas - could suffer economically if gas is cut

Europe's energy security: Gazprom relies on income from exporting gas to Europe, Russia gas has always been stable (even during the Cold War), new pipelines built which bypass Ukraine and Blarus e.g South Caucus pipeline will bring gas from Azerbaijan to Europe via Turkey, Europe looking for alternative energy sources

South stream pipeline: proposed by Gazprom, aims to deliver gas from central Asia and Russia to central Europe and Italy through Balkans, will rival the proposed Nabucco pipeline, owned by the EU to deliver gas to Eastern Europe, EU believe that Russia aims to use their gad supplied for political power and to out compete Nabucco pipeline.

Looking for more energy, via conventional and unconventional means:

Canada, Alberta

Canada's oil sands: oil sands are thick slurry composed of sand, water and bitumen,

largest reserves in Alberta: Deposited across three locations: Athabasca, the Cold Lake and the Peace River.

Rising oil prices due to high demand so energy security must be ensured

Social impacts - Tar sands can be used temporarily whilst renewable ways are discovered

Economic impacts - open cast mining lowers bitumen costs, Infrastructure development is needed to transport the oil, Canadian economy thrives although house prices plummet due to ruined environment

Environment - Habitat loss, 2-5 barrels of water needed when mining, reclamation of land after mining is slow, 3% of Boreal forests are destroyed

England, North West

Fracking is the process of drilling and injecting fluid into the ground at a high pressure in order to fracture shale rocks to release natural gas inside.

Social impacts - 1700 jobs created, employment for suppliers and contractors, citizens don't like change

Economic impacts - generate millions through business rates, local economy will thrive

Environmental - 2 tremors in Blackpool, pollutes groundwater, methane leaks, ruins pristine area, GHG emissions

Arctic

Arctic region holds 22% of worlds undiscovered conventional oil

Economic prepoistion

Lomonsov ridge was claimed by Russia, is considered to be an extension of the Russian land mass - geographically linked to the continental shelf

The old fashion land grab by Russia was not permitted by the other 8 countries that form the Arctic region

Denmark and Canada claim the Lomonsov ridge is actually connected to North America and Greenland instead of Russia

Russia, Canada, the USA, Norway, Denmark signed an agreement that they would abide by the UN law of Sea

Energy players

OPEC

OPEC: an association of producers or suppliers, formed in 1960's to monopolise the production and distribution of a product to control prices and to protect the interests of the members e.g OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries)

Advantages for producers: able to control supply and global prices, maximises profits of producers (or GDP when state owned), political power e.g Yom Kippur war oil embargo where OPEC cut off supply to USA so they would stop supporting Israel

Disadvantages for producers: to ensure oil prices remain high, supply must be relatively low, meaning overall income is limited

Advantages for consumers: stable prices - more reliable

Disadvantages for consumers: commodity traders cannot control prices, political instability/conflict may affect supply, highest prices

BP, Supermajor

Operates in 80 countries, 1700 million barrels of oil in reserve, produce 3.2 million barrels of oil per day

HOWEVER... The Deepwater Horizon spill in 2010 caused in Mississippi

Social - 10 contractors died, leaked for 87 days

Economic - 4.9 billion barrels of oil leaked, share price of BP plummeted, BP will pay $20 million to the state, tourism has declined

Environmental - damage to wildlife and marine species, 4.6 tonnes of oil removed from the beach

Gazprom

Accounts for 92% of worlds gas reserves

Provides EU 25% of gas

Gazprom is the supplier to 8 countries

Largest Corporation, earnings of 31 billion

Global energy uncertainties

Factors contributing to global energy uncertainties:

Future performance of global economy

Scale of global pop growth

Impact of rising Standards of living

Size of undiscovered oil and gas reserves

Discovery of new energy technologies

Scale of possible switch to renewable

Possible contribution of 'unconventional' oil sources

Emerging economies' demand for energy

Responses to increasing energy demands

Business as usual: do nothing - FFs will remain the dominant sources of energy worldwide, no investment needed in renewable energy, BUT 55% increase in global increase in CO2 emissions by 2030, emissions from electricity generation will account for 44% of global emissions by 2030

Multi-energy solution: meeting future energy demands from a mixture of renewable, recyclable and non-renewable sources, reduces Co2 emissions as a result of clean energy production, BUT expensive to invest in renewable energy, nuclear energy controversy

Energy conservation: decreasing the amount of energy used, decreases global CO2 emissions, extends time that Fossil fuels can be used, BUT likely to inhibit growth of developing counties, requires large investment from governments globally

Nuclear energy: France

Benefits: 75% of electricity generated from nuclear power - helps to meet hugh energy demands, largest exporter of electricity from nuclear power - increases GDP, low levels of CO2 per capita, helps meet targets set by Copenhagen summit, environmentalists view (James Lovelock): amount of uranium needed is significantly less than coal and oil (small bottle of uranium = 200 tonnes of oil), amount of nuclear waste in minimal unlike 700 tonnes of CO2 produced by FFs, nuclear ifs cheaper while oil/coal prices will increase

Cost: nuclear waste sent to Normandy for reprocessing - 97% recycled and 3% stored and disposed, land needs to be cleared to build plant - visual pollution, danger of nuclear duster e.g Chernobyl (1986), expensive (€15 billion for nuclear waste disposal), fear of terrorists getting hold of nuclear energy

Wind power

Benefits: wind is free - low efficiency is unimportant as it doesn't cost to harness it and it is an infinite resource, wind turbines save 4 million tonnes of carbon annually

Costs: low effiency - only 30% go enegy harnesses in comparison to 60% for coal powered plants, unreliable (power generates can double one day to the next so may not met demand), long process to build wind farms ( must be approves by gov, local councils etc), expensive to build, environmentalist PoV (James Lovelock): 'Far too late' for renewable energy, 1 nuclear station = 3000 win turbines, on-shore can damage farmland, ruin aesthetic, inefficient

Energy conflicts

Terrorist attack on Abqaiq oil processing plant: Al Qaida terrorists tries to take over Abqaiq oil processing plant in Saudi Arabis, attempted to drive vehicles loaded with explosives into he compound, 2 hour gun battle between officials and terrorists, 2 terrorists and 2 guards killed but no damage to plant

US invasion of Iraq: Saddam Husain was considered a threat to the security of Western oil supplies in the Middle East - by 2003 he was making deals with Russian and Chinese oil companies

Iran as an energy power: 3rd largest oil reserves and 2nd largest natural gas reserves, Japan and China both mort 13% of their oil from Iran, alliances developing between Moscow, Tehran and Beijing - energy experts from Russia and Iran in exchange for Chinese goods

Radical new approaches

Kyoto Protocol (1997):agreements for MDCs to cut emissions and for NICs to monitor emissions, long term agreement to reduce global CO2 emissions, BUT NICs such as China and India had no obligation beyond monitoring and reporting emissions, USA didn't sign protocol

Cap and trade scheme (2007): governments can set a limit on CO2 emission, and carbon emissions not used can be sold as credits to companies that produce over the limit, limits financial amazons in the private sector, financial motivation for companies to use less energy credits so they sell them, BUT companies can cone releasing high emission by buying energy credits from lower polluting companies

Green taxes: in the UK, vehicle exercise duties (VED) tax vehicles according to their level of CO2 emissions (also fuel tax and aviation tax), encourages less polluting vehicles to be used, BUT those who can afford the VED may use pollution vehicles anyway

Combined heat and power (CHP): captures and regulates the waste heat produced in electricity generation, cuts emission, increases efficiency of electricity generation, can use biofuel, BUT predominantly uses FFs, expensive

Recycling Waste: convert to useful energy, landfill methane used to generate electricity

Replace inefficient/ old technologies: phase out no energy saving light bulbs, replace petrol and diesel with hydrogen/ electric from renewable resources