Elections

Elections

1. Constitutional Requirement

   • AGE
     • President
       • 35
     • Senate
       • 30
     • House
       • 25
   • Citizenship
     • House
       • US citizen for 7 years
     • Senate
       • US citizen for 9 years
   • Residency
     • House
       • Resident of state they represent
         • Locality rule
     • Senate
       • Resident of state they represent

2. Nomination Process

   • need to gain the nomination of one of the two major parties
     • third party candidates rarely win
     • ay involve running in primaries
       • sometimes incumbent can be challenged in a primary
         • 2012 Richard Lugar of Indiana lost in primaries

3. Coattails effect

   • Occurs when their is a strong candidate at the top of the ballot, such as the president or governor
     • Only clear example in recent years -Raegan in 1980- Republicans gained 33 seats in House and in Senate
   • BUT can get a reverse coattail effect
     • 1992- Clinton won presidential election, but democrates lost 9 seats in the House

4. Split-Ticket Voting

   • practice of voting for candidates of two or more parties for different offices at the same election
     • not seen as odd in America as elections are more candidate-focussed than party focussed
       • Divided govt seen as a strength
       • 5 states voted for Romney but elected Democrat Senator
         • Nevada voted for Obama but Republican Senator

5. Strong support for incumbent

   • 2014
     • 96% incumbency in House
     • 85% incumbency in Senate
       • But not as high as it was in early 2000's
   • 2016
     • 97% House
     • 93% Senate

6. Fewer competitive races in House elections

   • Number of close races
     • 1992 - 111
       • 435
     • 2014 - 49
     • close race is one that is won by less than 10% points
   • most significant cause is JERRYMANDERING
     • can't change in the Senate
     • lead to higher level of partisanship & little incentive for a bipartisan support
     • house members is safe seats have more to fear from the primaries than the General Election

7. Voting behaviour in Congressional Elections

   • lack of data from presidential election years, but in mid-term elections there is evidence of both a local and a national voting outlook
   • in 1994 and 2002 in the Republicans attempted to 'nationails' the mid-term elections
     • 1994 contract with america

8. Local Issues

   • Regulation of the logging industry is key in Oregon and New Hampshire
     • Illegal immigration is focus in Texas and New Mexico
   • New York Times pointed out in 2002, not everyone was focussed on IRAQ. Fro people of Maine the economy was key

9. Record of the Incumbent

   • especially their attendance at roll-call votes in the House or Senate and how they cast those vote
   • Elizabeth Dole- 13 days in North Carolina voted for Bush 90% of the time
   • 2012- John Barrow endorsed by the NRA
     • Blue Dog Democrates

10. Mid-term elections

    • have some of their own trends
      • President's party tends to lose seats in both houses
        • Average loss: 29 in House/4 in Senate
    • 2010 Democrats lost 63 in house and 6 in senate
      • if the president has a coattail effect then they will do less well if their name isn't on the ballot
      • chance to express disappointment with the president. 1994 disappointed with Clinton's failure to deliver healthcare reform

11. 2010 Congressional Elections

    • compared with two years earlier, Democrats saw their votes plummet amongst key groups
      • down 6 points with white voters
      • down 7 points with men
      • down 8 points with women
    • Felt that instead of being an 'agent of change' had been a president of 'more of the same'
      • more big government spending, more congressional earmarks on legislation, more liberal policies