Elections and voting

Elections and voting

1. Presidential elections

   • Occur every 4 years on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November
   • Must be: a natural born US citizen, at least 35, a resident for at least 14 years (ARTICLE 2)
   • The seven stage process
     • 1) Invisible primary
       • 2) Primaries and caucuses
         • 3) Choosing the vice-presidential candidates
           • 4) National Party Conventions
             • 5) General election campaign
               • 6) Election Day
                 • 7) Electoral College
                   • The institution established by the founding fathers to elect the president
                   • Functions: Electors vote in state capitals to choose president and vice president
                   • Occurs: Monday after the second Wednesday in December
                   • How it works
                     • Each state has a certain number of electoral college votes (538 ECv’s in total) equal to that states representation in Congress, 2 senators and the representatives aka. Wyoming 3, California 55
                       • To win the presidency, a candidate must win an absolute majority, 270 ECV’s
                         • Maine and Nebraska award Ecv’s depending on who wins the presidential vote in each congressional district, the other 48 states award them all to the candidate with the most popular votes in their state
                           • The electoral college never meets together, the electors meet in their respective capitals on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December
                             • If no candidate gains 270 ecv’s then the president is elected by the house of representatives (50) and the vice president by the senate (100), winners would need an absolute majority in the respective chambers
                               • Only twice has the electoral college failed to come up with a winner- 1800 and 1824
                   • Possible reforms
                     • Abandon the winner-takes-all system for a more proportional system (used in Maine and Nebraska) e.g. had Florida been using a proportional system in 2000 it might have eased the problem, but had 50 states used this system in 2012, Romney would have become president, although he lost the popular vote by over 5 million votes
                     • Abolish the Electoral College altogether and decide the election on the popular vote, the problem with this is that it would encourage a multi-candidate election with the winner gaining maybe only 35-40% of the votes
                     • Pass state laws to prohibit ‘rouge’ Electors from casting such rogue votes
                   • Strengths and weaknesses
                     • Preserves the voice of the small population states
                       • Promotes a two-horse race, with the winner therefore likely to receive over 50% of the popular vote, giving the president a mandate to govern. In 25 of the last 37 elections (65%), the winner has gained more than 50% of the popular vote, but not in 1992, 1996 or 2000
                     • Small population states are over-represented
                       • Winner-takes-all system can distort the result: e.g. in 2008 Obama won 52% of the popular vote but 68% of the Electoral College votes
                         • Possible for a candidate to win the popular vote but to lose in the Electoral College: e.g. Gore in 2000
                           • Unfair to national third parties: e.g. Perot in 1992 gained 19% of the popular vote, but no ECV’s
                             • So-called ‘rouge’ or ‘faithless’ Electors vote for candidates other than the one who won the popular vote in their state
                               • The system used in the case of an Electoral College deadlock could result in the House choosing a president of one party and the Senate choosing a vice-president of another party
                 • Functions: Registered voters go to the polls
                 • Occurs: Tuesday after the first Monday in November
               • When in inter-party campaign begins. Is expensive and conducted largely on television. The candidates tour the country, spending time in states with a large number of electoral college votes, or those seen as ‘swing states’ that could be won by either party
               • Functions: The campaign between candidates of various parties
               • Occurs: Starts First Monday in September, televised debates in October, ends first week of November
             • A meeting held once every 4 years by each party to confirm its presidential and vice presidential candidates and finalise a party platform. The delegates chosen in the primaries attend, as well as the media.
             • Occurs: August/ early September (each lasts 3-4 days) Held in a big city (2012, Republicans in Tampa (Florida) and the democrats in charlotte (north Carolina) and held at a venue decided by the party's national committee
             • Functions
               • Confirm presidential candidates- to win need an absolute majority of the delegate votes- usually already certain e.g. Mitt Romney it was certain 3 months before, last uncertainty was President Gerald Ford defeating ex-governor Ronald Reagan by 1,187 delegate votes to 1,070.
               • Confirm vice presidential candidates- usually announced before e.g. Romney announced Paul Ryan over 2 weeks before the national convention- merely confirms what’s already known- can be used to create a ‘balanced ticket’ of characteristics, e.g. gender, age, race, religion, political experience, geographic region of origin or residence e.g. John McCain and Sarah Palin
               • Approve party platform (aka. policy document/manifesto)- try to avoid heated discussions so they don’t look divided like the republicans did in 1992 over abortion
               • Acceptance speech delivered by presidential candidate
             • Informal functions
               • To promote party unity- only time in 4 years the party meets together, any wounds in primaries are healed, allows defeated candidates to support the chosen candidate e.g. Clinton supporting Obama 2008- media will comment on this
               • To enthuse the party faithful (delegates)- important as they will be organising lots of the campaign, they need to communicate their enthusiasm to ordinary voters in their communities, they need to believe they have the winning ticket and policies
               • To enthuse ordinary voters- via the media and acceptance speech- first time for candidate to address ordinary voters, can display their qualities, can outline policies, can use to boost poll ratings (by creating bounce)
             • Why they are less important now
               • The presidential candidates are chosen in the primaries
               • The vice-presidential candidates are chosen by the presidential candidates and announced before the convention
               • The parties try to lay on ‘scripted’ and ‘sanitised’ conventions, avoiding controversy
               • The terrestrial (as opposed to cable) television companies give less coverage to the conventions
               • BUT While the formal functions are in decline of importance, the informal functions are still important
           • Functions: Presidential candidates announce their choice of running-mate
           • Occurs: Some days/weeks before the convention (July/august)
         • A presidential primary is an election to select a party’s candidate for the presidency.
         • A caucus is a meeting to select a party’s candidate for presidency (2012 Republican caucuses instead of primaries held in Iowa, Wyoming, north Dakota, Minnesota and Nevada)
         • Functions: Show popularity of candidates Choose delegates to attendthe national party conventions
         • Occurs: January- June
         • Presidential primaries are run under state, not federal law. Therefore, there’s potentially 50 different ways of holding a primary. States decide 6 important things about primaries:
           • 1) Whether to hold a primary or a caucus
             • 2) When to hold the primary
               • 3) How to conduct the primary
                 • 4) Who can vote in the primary
                   • 5) Who can be on the ballot
                     • 6) How to allocate the delegates
                       • Usually 15% of vote but in some Republican primaries is winner-takes-all
                   • CLOSED PRIMARY by voter affiliation or OPEN PRIMARY when they can pick a party and from that a candidate to vote for
               • Frontloading: the phenomenon by which states schedule their presidential primaries or caucuses earlier in the cycle in an attempt to increase their importance in the choosing of candidates. e.g. The number of states holding primaries or caucuses before the end of march increased from 11 in 1980 to 42 by 2008. By 5th Feb 2008 55% of delegates to the democrat and republican conventions had already been chosen.
                 • Rule changes by republicans in 2012 meant only 30 states held their contests by the end of march that year. But- front loading still important. Has led to super Tuesday (a day often in early February when a large number of states hold their primaries or caucuses.
         • Pros and cons
           • Increased level of participation by ordinary voters: 30% in 2008
             • Increased level of interest: e.g. in Democratic race in 2008
               • Increased choice of candidates: up to 14 in 2008
                 • Opening up the process to ‘outsider’ candidates: e.g. Bill Clinton (1992) and Obama (2008)
                   • Removing power of the party bosses
                     • Significantly diminishing opportunities for corruption by doing away with the old ‘smoke-filled rooms’
                       • Weeding out candidates not up to the gruelling contest
           • Turnout is usually low: less than 20% of eligible voters (though not in 2008)
             • Voters are unrepresentative of typical general election voters: more elderly, more ideological better educated, more wealthy
               • Makes the process far too long, which may discourage some better-qualified candidates from running
                 • Too expensive and media orientated
                   • Bitter personal battles can develop: e.g. Obama and Hilary Clinton (2008)
                     • Fails to test a number of important presidential qualities
                       • Lacks significant input from professional politicians, with too much power being given to ordinary voters
         • Possible further reform
           • National primary
           • Four regional primaries- northeast, south, midwest, west
           • Further limits on money-raising and speding
           • States voting in order of size of population, beginning with the smallest
           • A pre-primary mini-convention to choose the shortlist of candidates who would then run in the primaries
           • BUT The national committees and conventions of both parties would have to agree to the same platform All 50 states would have to agree to change their state laws A number of states strongly favour the current system than any of the above suggestions Further limiting money raising and spending would require an act of congress which would not be deemed by the supreme court as unconstitutional.
       • The year or so before the start of the primaries when potential candidates try to gain recognition and money as well as put together the necessary organisation. Its’s called invisible because there are few events during this period
       • Functions: Formally Announce candidacy Increase name recognition- important as Since 1988, those ahead in the opinion polls in the invisible primary have 6/7 for Republicans and 4/7 for democrats been nominated Money-raising and organising
       • Occurs: One calendar year before the election e.g. 2008 Obama announced he was running for candidacy 332 days before the first primary
       • But- is it still invisible? Jan 20212 Republican presidential candidates had appeared in 15 televised debates before the primaries and caucuses
   • 2002 reforms due to criticisms over Bill Clinton’s re-election campaign finances:
     • National party committees banned from raising or spending ‘soft money’
     • Labour unions and corporate groups forbidden from directly funding issue advertisements
     • Banning of union or corporate money to fund advertisements that mention a federal candidate, within 60 days of a general election or 30 days of a primary
     • Prohibition of fundraising on federal property
     • Increased individual limits on contributions to individual candidates or candidate committees to $2,300 (2007-8), to be further increased for inflation in each odd numbered year
     • ‘stand by your ad’ provision, resulting in all campaign ads including a verbal endorsement from the candidate with the words “I’m – and I approve this message”
     • The banning of contributions from foreign nationals
   • Are they important?
     • The only time the presidential candidates get to address American voters unfiltered for 90 minutes at a time
       • Often very large audience viewing the debates
         • Sound bites are played over and over
           • Especially important for challengers
             • Can change the direction of the campaign (e.g. first debate in 2012)
     • Can change the direction of the campaign (e.g. first debate in 2012)
       • Style is more important than substance: the memorable points are usually about trivia rather than substance
         • Usually confirm the position of the front-runner in the race
           • Viewing figures usually decline for later debates
             • Often not truly debates, merely candidates giving their pre-rehearsed answers
   • Factors affecting how people vote
     • Party affiliation
       • 2012- 70% identified with 1 of 2 major parties
     • Gender
       • Men= R, Women=D e.g. abortion, defence, law and order, gun control
     • Race
       • AA's 10% of electorate, 2012 only 27% Hispanics voted R
     • Religion
       • Protestants R, Catholics and Jewish D
     • Wealth
       • 2008, Obama won a majority among the poor (73%) and the rich (52%)
     • Geographic region
       • Northeast and west D, midwest is a battleground region
     • Policies
       • 2012- economy 59% said was the most important issue- was what Obamas campaign was about

2. Congressional elections

   • Occur: Every 2 years, with a presidential election or as a mid-term election in-between (all of House 1/3 senate re-elected)
   • To be a member of senate: Be at least 30 years of age Have been a us citizen for at least 9 years Be a resident of the state they represent
   • To be a member of House of Representatives: At least 25 years of age Us citizen for at least 7 years A resident of the state the congressional district is in [also some states have a locality rule that house members must be residents of the district they represent]
   • Primaries
     • Candidates for congressional elections must first secure the nomination of their party. As virtually all 535 members of Congress are either Democrats or Republicans, this means securing the nomination of one of the two major parties through the democratic or republican congressional primary. Sometimes, even an incumbent House member or senator might be challenged for the nomination in the upcoming election and will therefore have to enter the primary. Defeat for incumbents in the primary is unusual. Between 1992 and 2012- 11 election cycles- only 62 house members and 8 senators were defeated in congressional primaries.
   • Coat-tails effect
     • The coat-tails effect is the effect of a strong candidate for a party at the top of the ticket (i.e. president, state governor) helping congressional candidates of the same party to get elected at the same time. The coat-tails effect had not been evident in elections for over two decades. In 1980, the republican presidential candidate Ronald Reagan helped the Republicans gain 33 seats in the house and 12 seats in the senate. Then in 2008, democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama helped the Democrats gain 21 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate, leading some commentators to say that Obama was the first president since Reagan to have genuine coat-tails.
   • Split ticket voting
     • Split-ticket voting is the practice of voting for candidates of two or more parties for different offices in the same election. The opposite- voting for candidates of the same party for different offices at the same election- is called straight-ticket voting. In 2012, just 26 congressional districts (under 6% of the total) voted differently in the presidential and house elections. In 17 districts, Obama won the presidential race but the republicans won the house race; 9 districts voted Romney for president but voted democrat in the house race.
     • Split-ticket voting in congressional elections which coincide with the presidential election may result in divided government- one party controlling the white house, while the other party controls the two houses of congress. This occurred in 1996, when voters re-elected democrat president Bill Clinton but also elected republican minorities to both the house and the senate. In the 40 years between 1969and 2009, the USA had divided government for 22 years, including the last 6 years of Bill Clinton’s presidency (1995-2001) and the last 2 years of George W. Bush’s presidency (2007-09).
   • Power of the incumbency
     • An incumbent is the house member or senator who currently holds the seat. Congressional elections show high levels of support for incumbents or, put another way, there are high rates of re-election in congressional elections. In the house, re-election rates have exceeded 90% in 9 of the last 12 congressional elections, although 2010 and 2012 were two of the three elections when this did not occur. In the same period (1990-2012), re-election rates in the senate ranged from a high of 96% in 2004 to a low 79% in 2006.
   • The president’s party tends to lose seats in mid-term elections
     • In the 96-year period since the senate was first directly elected (1914-2010), the president’s party has lost an average 30 seats in the house and just 4 seats in the senate in mid-term elections. In 2010, president Obama’s democratic party lost 63 house seats and six senate seats. During this 96 year period, on only two occasions- 1934 and 2o02- has the president’s party gained seats in both houses in the mid-term elections. In 2002, bush’s republicans gained 5 house seats and 2 senate seats, largely as a result of the events of 9/11 and Bush's ‘war on terror’.
   • Decline in competitive races in house elections
     • Leads to:
       • Incumbents in safe seats tend to vote in the house in a way that pleases only those voters from their own party. This leads to an increase in partisanship and a decrease in compromise and cross-party cooperation.
       • House members in safe seats have more to fear from an intra-part challenge in a primary than from an inter-party challenge in a general election. Hence, the primary becomes the real political battleground and winning the primary is tantamount to winning re-election.
     • 1992-2004 there’s a trend of less competitive seats in house. (a seat won by the incumbent by under 10 percentage points). In 1992, there were 111 such seats in the house. By 2004, this fell to 31. Following 2004, less than 93% would be called safe seats. 2006, 2008 and 2010 congressional elections saw increases in the numbers of competitive house races.

3. Propositions, referendums and recall elections

   • Recall elections
     • A procedure that enables voters in a state to remove an elected official from office before their term has expired- a kind of direct form of impeachment
     • There are 19 states that make provision for recall elections
     • The most recent and high-profile recall election was of Wisconsin governor Scott Walker in June 2012, which Walker won 53-46%
   • Referendums
     • An electoral device, available in all 50 states, by which voters can effectively veto a bill passed by the state legislature. A number of states require that changes to the state constitution must be approved by a state-wide referendum. In other states, changes in state tax must be approved in this way.
     • In 24 states there is provision for a popular referendum. In these states, such as Alaska and new Mexico, if the state legislature passes a law that voters do not approve of, they may gather signatures to demand a referendum on the law. Usually there is a 90-day period after the law is passed during which the petitioning must take place. If voters reject the law in the ensuing referendum, the law is null and void- a kind of popular veto.
   • Propositions aka. initiatives
     • Two types:
       • Direct propositions- proposals that qualify go directly on the ballot
       • Indirect propositions- proposals are submitted to the state legislature, which decides on further action
     • A proposed proposition must be:
       • Filed with a designated state official
       • Reviewed for conformance with state legal requirements
       • Given a formal title and brief summary for inclusion on the ballot paper
       • Circulated to gain the required number of signatures from registered voters
       • Submitted to state officials for verification of signatures
       • Recent examples: A ban on same-sex marriage approved in 7 states including Virginia in 2006 and California in 2008; same-sex marriage approved in Maryland, Maine and Washington state in 2012. A increase in the state minimum wage level approved in 6 states including Missouri and Montana in 2006.
     • Advantages and disadvantages
       • They lack flexibility of the legislative process
         • They are vulnerable to manipulation by special interests
       • They provide a way of enacting reforms on controversial issues that state legislatures are often unwilling or unable to act upon
         • They increase the responsiveness and accountability of state legislatures
           • They can help increase voter turnout
             • They increase citizen interest in state issues and may also encourage pressure group membership