Bayes theorem

Bayes theorem

1. Bayes' theorem was a silver proposition by the Rev. Thomas Bayes, an eighteenth-century English theologian who was also a mathematician.

2. It is a procedure that allows us to express the conditional probability of a random event A given B, in terms of the probability distribution of event B given A and the probability distribution of only A.

3. Bayes Theorem Applications

   • It is used for any project or experiment that must calculate the probabilities that the results are reliable or any error is presented despite this to the situations that occur occur since others arose which must be solved

4. Example

   • A cell phone company has two machines A and B. 54% of the cell phones produced are made by machine A and the rest by machine B. Not all cell phones produced are in good condition. The proportion of defective cell phones made by A is 0.2 and by B is 0.5. What is the probability that a cell phone from that factory is defective? What is the probability that, knowing that a cell phone is defective, it comes from machine A?