Methodological Approach

Methodological Approach

1. Phase 1– Construction of the Observational Database

   • Step 1.1: Selection and integration of hydrological and climatic time series
   • Step 1.2: Validation of precipitation series
   • Step 1.3: Data curation, gap filling, and temporal standardization
   • Step 1.4: Assembly of the final database for predictive modeling

2. Phase 2 – Development of Model 1 (Proxy)

   • Step 2.1: Selection of the predictor variable set (Set 1)
   • Step 2.2: Construction and training of Model 1
   • Step 2.3: Cross-validation and testing with actual observation periods
   • Step 2.4: Generation of the proxy series

3. Phase 3 – Development of Model 2 (Final)

   • Step 3.1: Selection of the predictor variable set (Set 2)
   • Step 3.2: Construction and training of Model 2
   • Step 3.3: Cross-validation and testing with actual observation periods

4. Phase 4 – Future Projections and Flood Risk Analysis (CMIP6)

   • Step 4.1: Construction of the CMIP6 database
   • Step 4.2: Application of Model 1 to generate a future proxy series
   • Step 4.3: Application of Model 2 to estimate future water levels
   • Step 4.4: Evaluation of results and flood risk analysis