Demographic transition model

Demographic transition model

1. Stage 1

   • High fluctuating stage
   • Occurs in societies where there is littel medicine, low life expectancy and no birth control
   • Remote rainforest areas of Amazonia and Indonesia are the only locations where this stage might happen today

2. Stage 2

   • Decrease in death rate
   • Life expectancy increases
   • Population risies
   • Children are needed to work the land

3. Stage 3

   • Death rates fall much slower
   • Birth rates fall quickly
     • This is due to availability in contraceptives and economic changes
   • As a country develops, children become economic costs instead of economic assets

4. Stage 4

   • Birth and death rates are low
   • Birth rates fluctuate depending on the economic situation
     • When the economy is growing and people have jobs and earn a good living they are more likely to have children
     • In times of unemployment and low wages, people tend to postpone having a family until times are better
   • There is still population growth, but it is slow

5. Stage 5

   • Death rate rises because the population is mostly elderly
   • In Eastern Europe an uncertain economy discourages people from having babies

6. Examples

   • Stage 1: Traditional rainforest tribes
     • Parts of Indonesia, Brazil and Ecuador
     • Small numbers of poeple live separately with little contact with the outside world
   • Stage 2: Afghanistan
     • Afghanistan is an extremely poor country, held back by political instability
     • Birth rate 46.2, death rate 20.0
   • Stage 3: Brazil
     • Brazil is a newly industrialising country (NIC)
     • Brazil's population has doubled since 2015
   • Step 4: USA
     • The USA is the largest and most developed economy in the world
     • Many immigrants come from Catholic Central America
   • Stage 5: Germany
     • One of the first countries to enter this stage
     • Germany's birth rate is well below the replacement rate