ROSTOW'S MODERNISATION THEORY 1960's

ROSTOW'S MODERNISATION THEORY 1960's

1. Basic Background

   • American economist
   • Five stages of development
   • Countries further through the stages have an advantage over countries further behind
   • He thought capitalism was the only effective way to get through all the stages

2. STAGE 1 - TRADITIONAL SOCIETY

   • Subsistence economy (mainly farming), limited technology/capital, cannot process raw materials/develop industries and services

3. STAGE 2 - PRECONDITIONS FOR TAKE OFF

   • External help, extractive industries develop, agriculture commercialized, tech. and infrast. improvements, transp. encourages trade
     • UK 1750. USA 1800. Japan 1880. India 1950. Ethiopia not yet reached this stage.

4. STAGE 3 - TAKE OFF

   • manufacturing grows rapidly, growth limited to certain parts of country, airports roads and railways, political and social adjustments to adapt
     • UK 1820. USA 1850. JAPAN 1900. INDIA 1980

5. STAGE 4 - DRIVE TO MATURITY

   • growth spreads - rapid urbanisation, increase in no. and type of industries, earl industries may decline, complex transport systems - tech. improve
     • UK 1850. USA 1920. JAPAN 1930. india not yet reached this stage

6. STAGE 5 - HIGH MASS CONSUMPTION

   • tertiary industries and welfare facilities, employment in service indus. grows, manufacturing declines, production of durable consumer goods
     • USA 1930. UK 1940. JAPAN 1950.

7. CRITICISMS

   • assumes all countries start off at the same level
   • injection of aid been dwarfed by debt repayments which delayed/prevented some countries reaching take off stage (Africa)
   • model underestimates the extent to which development of some countries was at expense of others eg colonialism and imperialism
   • underestimates the effect of globalisation - the time taken for a country to develop decreases as they learn from others