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Mapa Mental por Gabrielle Hamer, actualizado hace más de 1 año
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Creado por Gabrielle Hamer
hace casi 9 años
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The Impact of the Media on voting
behaviour
- The media and UK elections
- The media can be divided broadly into: broadcast media (television, radio); the press
(newspapers, journals, magazines); and the media (internet)
- The BBC and ITC are legally required to remain politically impartial.
- Newspapers are free to take sides.
- The Sun was famously vocal in support of the Conservatives in the 1992 GE, coming up with
memorable headlines as "Will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the light". When a Labour
victory appeared likely. Paul Whitely estimated that the Sun's decision to back Labour in 1997 cost the
Conservatives around 500,000
- Based on newsprint sales, 57.5% of the dailies backed the Tories while 11.7 % backed Labour and, on
the same metric, 66% of the Sunday nationals urged their readers to vote Conservative.
- Based on newsprint sales, 57.5% of the dailies backed the Tories while 11.7 % backed Labour and, on
the same metric, 66% of the Sunday nationals urged their readers to vote Conservative.
- The Sun was famously vocal in support of the Conservatives in the 1992 GE, coming up with
memorable headlines as "Will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the light". When a Labour
victory appeared likely. Paul Whitely estimated that the Sun's decision to back Labour in 1997 cost the
Conservatives around 500,000
- The BBC and ITC are legally required to remain politically impartial.
- The media can be divided broadly into: broadcast media (television, radio); the press
(newspapers, journals, magazines); and the media (internet)
- Significance of Opinion Polls
- Opinion polls are most visible at election times. During these periods, the major polling companies (e.g. MORI
and NOP) question the voting intentions of sample groups, selected with the intention of creating an a true
cross-section of the electorate in a group of around 1000 individuals
- Exit polls are normally more accurate than the
ordinary polls during the election campaign as they
use larger samples and ask people how they voted
rather than surveying voter intentions.
- In 2015, the exit poll taken on behalf of BBC, ITN and Sky predicted a Tory
victory with 316 seats, with Labour winning 239, Lib Dems 10, SNP 58 (all
but one seat), UKIP 2.
- The exit poll was fairly accurate, only out by a few seats.
- The exit poll was fairly accurate, only out by a few seats.
- In 2015, the exit poll taken on behalf of BBC, ITN and Sky predicted a Tory
victory with 316 seats, with Labour winning 239, Lib Dems 10, SNP 58 (all
but one seat), UKIP 2.
- Do polls reflect or help to shape opinion?
- In some countries (e.g. France) opinion polls are
banned in the days leading up to elections for fear
that they might influence voting intentions
- Some people believe that voters are more likely to vote for parties that are doing well in polls (bandwagon effect).
- Others argue that there is a boomerang effect, where people
vote for the 'underdogs' or, more likely, they do not turn out to
vote when their party is well ahead.
- Opinion poll findings can also result in an increase in
tactical voting. Michael Portillo believed that his loss in
Enfield in 1997 was partly due to tactical voting from
polls.
- Opinion poll findings can also result in an increase in
tactical voting. Michael Portillo believed that his loss in
Enfield in 1997 was partly due to tactical voting from
polls.
- Others argue that there is a boomerang effect, where people
vote for the 'underdogs' or, more likely, they do not turn out to
vote when their party is well ahead.
- Some people believe that voters are more likely to vote for parties that are doing well in polls (bandwagon effect).
- In some countries (e.g. France) opinion polls are
banned in the days leading up to elections for fear
that they might influence voting intentions
- Opinion polls are most visible at election times. During these periods, the major polling companies (e.g. MORI
and NOP) question the voting intentions of sample groups, selected with the intention of creating an a true
cross-section of the electorate in a group of around 1000 individuals
- Poll Accuracy
- Even with good sampling, pollsters normally
allow margin of error plus or minus 3%. In
1992, however, the average final poll error
was 8.9%. What factors can lead to polling
error?
- 1) Respondents were not registered:
- In 1992 it appeared that some
of those being asked the questions had not registered to vote,
possibly in an effort to avoid the Poll Tax.
- In 1992 it appeared that some
of those being asked the questions had not registered to vote,
possibly in an effort to avoid the Poll Tax.
- 2) Respondents were lying:
- It has been suggested that people were too embarrassed to
admit publicly that they were going to vote Conservative
- It has been suggested that people were too embarrassed to
admit publicly that they were going to vote Conservative
- 3) Respondents were unrepresentative of the broader electorate
- Sampling errors and samples that were too small meant that
some surveys were skewed from the start
- Sampling errors and samples that were too small meant that
some surveys were skewed from the start
- 4) Many respondents were 'floating' voters:
- there was clearly a late swing to the Conservatives. Was it
perhaps due to a large number of floating voters?
- there was clearly a late swing to the Conservatives. Was it
perhaps due to a large number of floating voters?
- 1) Respondents were not registered:
- Even with good sampling, pollsters normally
allow margin of error plus or minus 3%. In
1992, however, the average final poll error
was 8.9%. What factors can lead to polling
error?
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