Flashcards on MISCC, created by Rey Garcia on 08/21/2015.
Rey Garcia
Flashcards by Rey Garcia, updated more than 1 year ago
Rey Garcia
Created by Rey Garcia almost 9 years ago

Resource summary

Question Answer
Define chronologies and timelines a. Chronologies: List placing events or actions into the order in which they occurred b. Timeline: Graphic depiction of those events put in context of the time of the events
Explain the benefits of chronologies and timelines Used to identify trends or relationships between the events or actions
Explain the term premise Statements that set forth the reasons or evidence
Explain the term conclusion The statement that the evidence is claimed to support or imply
Define social network analysis Mathematical measuring of variable related to the distance between nodes and the types of associates in order to derive even more meaning from the [link] chart, especially about the degree and type of influences one node has on another
Explain the purpose of social network analysis Develop a more complete understanding of how networks behave and how that behavior s affected by connectivity. The division of labor in an organization creates subunits and differentiated roles
-List the three key terms used in social network analysis -Explain the key terms used in social network analysis a. Centrality: Network centrality indicates an entity’s prominence in, or influence over, a network b. Betweenness: Degree to which a node lied between other nodes in the network c. Closeness: The degree an individual is near all other individuals in a network (directly or indirectly) is defined as closeness
Explain the purpose of brainstorming Technique for stimulating new thinking
Explain the benefits of using brainstorming -Spark new ideas -ensure a comprehensive look at issues -raise previously “unknowns unknowns” -prevent premature consensus around a single hypothesis
Explain the purpose of issue development Used to ensure the central issues and alternative explanations of an issue or problem are identified
Explain the six step process of issue development a. Paraphrase: Redefine the issue without losing the original meaning b. 180 degrees: Turn the issue on its head c. Broaden the focus: Restates the problem in a larger context d. Narrow the focus : Take the question and ask about the components that make up the problem e. Redirect the focus: What outside forces impinge on the issue? f. Ask “Why”: Ask a series of why or how questions about the issue
Explain the purpose of key assumptions check Lists and reviews the key working assumptions on which fundamental judgments rest
Explain the benefits of key assumptions check - Explain the logic of the analytic argument and expose faulty logic -Understand the key factor that shape an issue -Stimulate thinking about an issue -Uncover hidden relationships and links between key factors -Identify developments that would cause you to abandon an assumption -Prepare analysts for changed circumstances that could surprise them
Explain the purpose of alternative future analysis Systematically explores multiple ways a situation can develop when there is high complexity and uncertainty
Explain the benefits of alternative futures analysis a. Provides an effective means of weighing multiple unknown or unknowable factors and presenting a set of plausible outcomes b. Help to understand a problem by identifying plausible combinations of uncertain factors c. Broader analytic framework for calculating the costs, risks, and opportunities presented to policymakers by different outcomes d. Aids analysts and decision makers in anticipating what otherwise would be surprising developments for forcing them to challenge assumptions and consider possible wild cards or discontinuous events e. Generates indicators to monitor for signs that a particular future is becoming more or less likely, so that plans can be reassessed
Explain the purpose of quadrant crunching Helps imagine the future by challenging assumptions and discovering “unknown unknowns” when little data is available
Explain the benefits of quadrant crunching Useful for finding unknown unknowns and avoiding surprise
-List the process of intelligence production in the correct order of performance -Explain the actions taken during each step of intelligence production a. Filter i. Eliminate redundant data ii. Eliminate irrelevant data iii. Eliminate inaccurate data b. Record i. Categorize data to reduce volume c. Evaluate i. Reliability and credibility of reports/info d. Analyze i. Transform data into intelligence to predict possible outcomes
-List the components of the analysis framework in the correct order of performance -Explain the outputs of each component of the analysis framework a. Analyze: Clearly define problem ii. Evaluate KEY information iii. Generate hypothesis iv. Draw conclusions b. Synthesize: i. Determine relevance ii. Assess reliability iii. Generate characterizations iv. Test assumptions v. Reconcile conflicts c. Estimate: i. Provide judgment & insight ii. Anticipate developing trends iii. Evaluate alternatives iv. Assess implications
List the three components of intelligence evaluation criteria a. Reliability b. Relevance c. Accuracy
-List the four components of applied logic -Explain each component of applied logic a. Facts: statement demonstrated to be true b. Opinions: What someone believes to be true; may or may not be true c. Inferences: Conclusions drawn from facts, opinions, or other inferences d. Reasoning: Mental process brought to bear on facts, opinions, and inferences
-Explain the types of reasoning -List the two types of reasoning a. Deductive: General premise to specific conclusion b. Inductive: Specific instance to general premise
-List the three basic tests of truth -Explain the tests of truth a. Correspondence: Statement relates to reality b. Coherence: Demonstrates consistency with other ideas/facts c. Pragmatic: Statement is true if true in application
Explain the purpose of analytic integrity standards To ensure that the internal evaluations of intelligence use the same standards as a core element to ensure uniformity
-List the five analytic integrity standards -Explain the five analytic integrity standards a. Objectivity: unbiased perspective b. Independent of Political Considerations: provide information not distorted or altered with intent of supporting any agenda c. Timeliness: deliver intelligence in a timely manner d. Based on All Available Sources of Intelligence: use all relevantly available information e. Exhibits Proper Standards of Analytic Tradecraft: use analytic tradecraft standards
List the nine analytic tradecraft standards a. Properly describes quality and credibility of underlying sources, data, and methodologies b. Properly expresses and explains uncertainties associated with major analytic judgments c. Properly distinguishes between underlying intelligence and analysts assumptions and judgments d. Incorporates alternatives analysis e. Demonstrates customer relevance and addresses implications f. Use clear and logical argumentation g. Exhibits change to or consistency of analytic judgments h. Makes accurate judgments and assessments i. Incorporates effective visual information where appropriate
Explain the purpose of Analytic Outreach Establish overarching doctrine and policy of the DNI and IC responsibilities concerning outreach to experts beyond the IC to support, improve, and enrich analysis
Explain the purpose of creative (divergent) thinking Creative thinking allows one to think outside tier experiences ad patterns of thought
Explain the term paradigm (mind set) Thinking habits that guide thought processes
Explain the positive and negative effects of paradigms a. Positive: Concentrate on the most important issues b. Negative: Block predictive analysis
-List the two categories of analytic pitfalls -Explain the two categories of analytic pitfalls a.Logical Fallacies: Errors in the reasoning process caused by the failure to apply sound logic b.Biases: Subjective viewpoints that indicate a preconceived notion about someone or something
List the seven common obstacles to objective thinking a. Every thought and decision has an emotional dimension b. Mental shortcuts by the unconscious mind influences thinking c. Analysts view the world in terms of patterns d. Analysts instinctively rely on and are susceptible to biases and assumptions e. Analysts feel a need to find explanations for everything f. Analysts seek out and value evidence that supports their effort g. Analysts believe bad analysis in the face of contradictory evidence
-List the two different types of logical fallacies -Explain the two different types of logical fallacies a. Omission: Fail to consider all evidence b. Assumption: Assumes evidence or facts to create desired end state
-List the four types of bias -Explain the four types of bias a. Cultural: Inability to truly view things from another perspective b. Organizational: Organizations pursue specific policies based on preconceived mindsets c. Personal: Emanate from past experience, personal background and education d. Cognitive: Mental error caused by simplified information processing strategy
Explain the purpose of critical thinking Provides a way to evaluate arguments and formal lines of reasoning
-List the nine universal standards of critical thinking -Explain the nine universal standards of critical thinking a. Clarity: the gateway standard b. Accuracy: true/correct/free of error c. Precision: exact & reproducible d. Relevance: pertinent e. Depth: extensively addressed f. Breadth: alternatives & opposition g. Logical consistency: reasonable h. Fairness: free from bias i. Significance: focus on importance
List the eight elements of thought a. All reasoning has a PURPOSE b. All reasoning is an attempt to SOLVE A PROBLEM c. All reasoning is based on ASSUMPTIONS d. All reasoning emerges from some POINT OF VIEW e. All reasoning is based on DATA, INFORMATION and EVIDENCE f. All reasoning is expressed through and shaped by CONCEPTS and IDEAS g. All reasoning contains INFERENCES or INTERPRETATIONS by which analysts draw CONCLUSIONS and give meaning to data h. All reasoning has IMPLICATIONS and CONSEQUENCES
-List the four problem types -Explain the four problem types a. Simplistic Only one factual answer b. Deterministic: One factual answer reached through a specific formula c. Random: Multiple, potential known and unknown solutions d. Indeterminate: Multiple, potential unknown solutions exist
List the six primary analytic tools a. Matrix Analysis b. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses c. Weighted Ranking d. Pattern Analysis e. Timeline Analysis f. Link Analysis
Explain the purpose of Matrices Analysis Converts all source information into graphics that show relationships between entities
Explain the purpose of Weighted Ranking Structured method to prioritize the rank order of specific items by assigning selected criteria
Explain the purpose of Pattern Analysis Process of careful observation and evaluation of threat activities to deduce doctrinal principals and techniques, tactics, and procedures that threat forces or groups employs
Explain the purpose of Link Analysis Method to graphically display relationships between individuals, events, organizations and activities from information recorded in matrices
Explain the purpose of Quality of Information Check Way to evaluate completeness and validity of available information separately from the source
List the benefits of Quality of Information Check a. Provides the basis for determining confidence for assessment and judgment b. Provide an opportunity to mitigate assimilation or confirmation bias based on the source c. Catch errors of interpretation d. Identify intelligence gaps e. Helps identify denial and deception f. Credible sources can knowingly pass low quality information g. Keep source and quality reviews separate
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