The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model

1. Stage Two - Early expanding

   • High birth rate
     • Large families are encouraged by cultural & religious beliefs.
     • Lack of contraception.
     • So children can go out to work e.g. farming the land.
     • 'Safety net' due to high infant mortality rate.
   • Falling death rate
     • Improved medical care.
     • Improved sanitation and water supply.
     • Decrease in child mortality rate.
     • Improvements in transport.
   • Examples: Peru, Sri Lanka & Kenya.

2. Stage Three

   • Falling birth rate
     • Increased access to contraception & family planning becomes popular.
     • Industrialisation & mechanisation mean less workers are required.
     • Emancipation of women - allowed to follow a career path for the first time.
     • Increased desire for materialistic possessions.
   • Falling birth rate
     • Continuation of improvements being made in several areas.
   • Examples: China, Cuba & Australia.

3. Stage Four

   • Birth rate
     • Remains low and fluctuates slighty.
   • Death rate
     • Remains low and fluctuates slighty.
   • Examples: Canada, Japan, USA & UK.

4. Stage Five

   • Two groups appeared to have entered this stage.
     • Central & Eastern European countries where birth rate has fallen below the replacement level.
     • South African coutries where HIV/aids has caused a rapid rise in the death rate.

5. Advantages / Disadvantages

   • Advantages
     • Designed for the UK but can be applied to all countries.
     • Easy to understand.
     • Timescales are flexible.
   • Disadvantages
     • Already been adapted once to add stage 5.
     • Doesn't consider the effects of migration.
     • Diseases and natural disasters are not accounted for.

6. Stage One - High fluctuating

   • High birth rate
     • Large families are encouraged by cultural & religious beliefs.
     • Lack of contraception.
     • 'Safety net' due to high infant mortality rate.
     • So children can go out to work e.g. farming the land.
   • High death rate
     • Disease.
     • Famine.
     • Poor diet.
     • Limited hygeine.
     • Basic/limited health care facilities.
   • Examples: Parts of Ethiopia, Bangladesh & Amazonian rainforest tribes.