global population

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The Demographic Transition Model

Demography is the study of population.

This model shows the birth and death rate patterns across the globe through time.

It shows the development of a country between economic and demographic changes.

There were 4 Stages, however recent development in Europe required the addition of another stage.

Exponential Growth

The world's exponential growth means that the population has increased rapidly.

Not only is the population increasing, but the rate of increase is becoming greater.

Growth is predicted to continue, however the rate is slowing down. The population is likely to increase to a 9.1 billion by 2050, however it shall peak at 2150 at 10 billion. This should be followed by a more stable period of zero growth or even natural decrease.

A line graph representing this shows the line becoming steeper over time, which looks like the letter J.

Growth rates today are now slowing down which means that the shape of the graph is being levelled off into an S curve shape.

Major factors affecting population growth

Agricultural change

Technology can improve yields and save labour. It frees workers for a more rapid economic growth. In the industrial Revolution in the UK, factories needed a large workforce therefore larger families were needed. However the technological advances reduced the need for labour, and smaller families were more beneficial.

Urbanisation

Rural-to-urban migration is common in LEDC's for job opportunities. One major reason for migration is also for educational purposes for children. Children's labour is therefore of less value in cities than rural areas.

Emancipation of women

Opportunities have risen economically for girls as well as boys. The development of larger workforces creates a desire for more paid work if the good standard of living is to be achieved. The chances of having a family can be major put back in the future or none at all if the women's job is at risk. Therefore they make deliberate choices to delay pregnancy in order to enhance their career further. As childcare is expensive, women feel as if they must reach the maximum of economic development until they are financially ready for looking after a child.