Flashcards
Decision Making
Flashcards do conjunto (29)
- 1Decision ProblemDiscrepancy between the target situation and the current situation
- 2DecisionChoice made from available alternatives
- 3Decision MakingProcess of identifying...
...problems and opportunities
... and resolving them
... by developing and analyzing alternatives
... and choosing from among them - 4Descriptive decision TheoryHow people actually do make decisions
(studies, questionnaries) - 5Prescriptive decision theoryHow people should make decisions
(more process related) - 6The three decision making models1) Classic model (clear-cut problem)
2) Administrative model (vague problems, uncertainity)
3) Political model (pluralistic, ambiguity) - 7Characterization of Decision Problems1) Setting
2) Problem Character I
3) Problem Character II
4) Degree of Difficulty
5) Problem Structure
6) Link to other Decision Problems
8) Problem Level
9) Type of actor
10) Number of Goals to Achieve
11) Ability to predict Consequences - 81) SettingPrivate or Business
- 92+3) Problem CharacterChoice Problem, Design Problem
--> how many alternatives?
Buy or renovate? - 105) Problem structureA problem is well-structured if
a solution can be found analytically
otherwise, it's ill-structured
programmed decisions: checklists
non-programmed decisions: no rules to follow - 116) Link to other Decision ProblemsIndependent Decision Problem
Decision Problem in a Decision Sequence
--> shall I out or not and if so, how much can I make the day after - 12Problem levelOriginal decision problem
--> Should I go out?
Meta-level problem
--> Should I ask or include my wife? - 13Heuristic Heuristic rule, heuristic methodRules of thumb that simplify the process of making decisions
(Heuristic decision making procedures
vs.
analytical decision making procedures) - 14Heuristic PrincipleThinking rules which make it possible for problem solvers to render complex problems solvable. Heuristic principles are an important basis of heuristic decision making procedures
- 15Define PrOACT1) Problem
2) Objectives
3) Alternatives
4) Consequences
5) Tradeoffs - 16Six Steps in the Managerial Decision Making Process (not to be learned, just to have seen)1) Recognition of decision requirement
2) Diagnosis and analysis of causes
3) Development of alternatives
4) Selection of desired alternative
5) Implementation of chosen alternative
6) Evaluation and feedback - 17An effective decision making process fulfills six criteria Which ones?1) Focus on what is important
2) logical and consistent
3) subjective and objective factors are included, analytical and intuitive thinking
4) as much information and analysis as necessary
5) guides the gathering
6) straihtforward, reliable, easy to use, flexible - 18TriggerThe initiating force behind a decision problem.
Most trigger come from others.
Even though triggers often follow a preceding symptom, they can, however, just as well be proactive
(exp: Head of HR is shocked, KPI reporting shows something) - 19SymptomA sign of the existence of an undesirable situation
Low profits, High costs, low morale, high employee turnover - 20Real Cause/ProblemThe issue underlying a symptom or a trigger
(Poor market research, Rate of pay too low, Poor design process) - 21Clarify what you mean by each objective. How? SMART. Explain.S = Specific
M = Measurable
A = Attainable
R = Relevant
T = Time-bound - 22Other names for alternatives are?- choices
- options
- possible actions - 23Tradeoffs within a PrOACT processJudging how big a difference on one dimension compensates for a difference on another dimension
- 24Tradeoffs: Dominance Definition?Alternative X dominates Alternative Y if X is better than Y on every dimension (on every consequences)
- 25Even-Swaps technique What is it?Creating alternatives that are all equivalent on one dimension by judging the compensating adjustment on another dimension
- 26Problem-Finding Systems and Problem Indicators: Pros and Cons of Early-Warning Systems and Problem-finding systems of accountingEarly warning systems:
+ React early and show problems before they become too serious
+ Give you time to react
- High risk of false alarms
- substantial cost involved
Problem-finding systems of accounting:
+False alarms are almost inexistent
+ Relatively cheap as they rely on existing data
- Alarm may already be too late - 27Problem-Finding System and Problem Indicator by Parfitt/Collins Explain!Market share (%) = P * R * I
P: Penetration
R: Repurchase Rate
I: Buying intensity
while:
I>1: heavy buyer, I<1: light buyer - 28Possible supporting tools for Decision Making- BSC
- Parfitt/ Collins
- Scenario Analysis
- Brainstorming
- Brainwriting (6-3-5 method; 108 options)
- the six thinking Hats
- Morphological Analysis - 29Risk-DefinitionRisk= probability * consequence
or
probability * impact
Informações
- Descrição
- Betriebswirtschaft FlashCards sobre Decision Making, criado por Dean Zehnder em 11-12-2016.
- Criado por
- Dean Zehnder
- Visualizações
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- Avaliação