Flashcards
2. Forecasting
Cards in this deck (8)
- 13 things we can forecast in SCM1. demand
2. supply
3. price - 2What inaccurate forecasting causes (2)1.1 Over-production -> excess inventory - spoilage, waste, inventory costs
1.2 Under-production -> inventory shortages - late deliveries, stock out and shortage, high shipping costs - 36 reasons for forecasting1. customer satisfaction
2. reduced inventory stockouts
3. scheduling production
4. lowering safety stock requirement
5. reducing product obselence costs
6. managing shipping better - 43 categories of forecasting1. qualitative - peoples "educated opinions"
2. time series - based on history
3. causal - assume other factors correlate - 5qualitative methods1. executive opinion
2. market research
3. delphi method - 6time series methods1. moving average (naive, simple and weighted)
2. exponential smoothing
3. linear trend line - 7Weighted moving average (formula)D=past demand, W is weight
WMA = W(i)*D(i) + W(i-1)*D(i-1) + W(i-2)*D(i-2)
E: 0,5 * 90 + 0,33 * 110 + 0,17 * 130
=103,4 - 8Exponential smoothing (formula)a= weight for actual demand
F(i) = forecast for current period
D(i) = demand current period
F(i+1) = a*D(i) + (1-a)*F(i)
weight * demand now + (1-weight) * previous forecast
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- Supply Chain Management Flashcards on 2. Forecasting, created by Lauri Hiltunen on 10/12/2018.
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- Lauri Hiltunen
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