UNCERTAINTY AND PROBABILITY

UNCERTAINTY AND PROBABILITY

1. What could go wrong

   • accident
   • vehicle break down

2. To extent to which an event is likely to occur

   • measured by the ratio of the favorable cases to whole number of cases possible (nA/n)

3. Markow Process

   • one of the most successful theoretical development of probability applied and used in action was so called markow process. markov introduced time in process of probability change

4. Applications of probability

   • Failure Prediction
   • Games prediction / betting
   • Business Intelligence
     • Data Mining
       • It uses frequency based probability
         • take a random sample from the population of interest and identify the portion of the sample with attribute A required