Population Dynamics

Population Dynamics

1. World population growth

   • Why it's grown
     • 1 bill in 1804, 7 bill in 2012, main reason is fall in death rate (DR)
     • Recently, there's been a fall in birth rate (BR), so population growth expected to slow down
   • Demographic transition model
     • Stage 1
       • High birth rate - no birth control, children seen as 'asset' so large families
       • High death rate - lots of famines and diseases like plague/typhoid
     • Stage 2
       • High birth rate - same as stage 1
       • Falling death rate - improved hygiene, healthcare and nutrition, safe drinking water and good sewage disposal
     • Stage 3
       • Falling birth rate - Birth control, less children dying and less children wanted for economic reasons
       • Falling death rate - falling slowly
     • Stage 4
       • Low birth rate - less women want a family, birth control
       • Low death rate - healthcare still improving
     • Stage 5
       • Low birth rate - fewer young people
       • Slightly rising death rate - more old people

2. Population and development

   • Population pyramids
     • Shows number/percentage of people in different age groups, male and female
     • Can be used to see where on the model a country's at
     • Shapes as a country develops - narrow bottom, low birth rate; high and wide top, higher life expectancy
     • Show short term factors that impact population e.g. war can kill young adult males
     • Can forecast population totals and growth rates so people can plan for the future
   • Developed and developing
     • Nigeria
       • Wide base - high BR
       • Narrow top - low life expectancy, less people survive to middle age
       • Youthful population
     • Japan
       • Narrow base - low BR
       • Similar numbers in each age group - low DR
       • Wide top - long life expectancy
       • Ageing population

3. Population issues

   • Extra costs
     • Ageing
       • State pensions
       • Home help, meals on wheels etc.
       • Health care - care homes, beds in hospitals, specialists for diseases like dementia
     • Youthful
       • Nurseries and schools, maternity/paternity leave
       • Health care - maternity wards, paediatrics
     • Both
       • High number of dependents
       • Working population may need to look after elderly/children
   • Problems for elderly people in UK
     • Living alone when partners die
     • Can't get around without public transport
     • High cost of care homes
     • Long waits for appointments/operations
     • Fear of crime
     • Selling homes to pay for care