Detente 1969-81

Detente 1969-81

1. Key events

   • Moscow Summit 1972
     • SALT I Strategic Arms Limitation Talks
       • ABM Treaty - Each side limited to 2 missile shields.
         • Particularly benefited USSR - behind in ABM tech & coulldn't afford 2nd arms race
       • Basic Principles Agreement
         • 12 fundamental principles
           • improved stability of relationship
         • Each saw other as equal.
         • Coexistence not confrontation
       • Interim Agreement on Offensive Missiles
         • Missile launchers: 1618 (USSR) 1054 (USA) Sub based launchers: 740 (USSR), 656 (USA)
         • Only temp - full agreement to be formed in 1977
       • Followed by SALT II - agreement: ceiling of 2400 missiles & bombers
         • Disagreements over cruise missiles and Russian 'Backfire' bombers - US believe they could reach US so should be included
         • Carter announced new nuclear project
           • Biggest US construction project of all time - 200 new missiles, 23 silos, underground railways
         • Not ratified by Congress following Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
   • Helsinki Accords 1975 - Governed relations between East and West Europe
     • Basket 1: Security issues
       • Respect spheres of influence and each others' borders. POssible future border change - peacful negotitation
     • Basket 2: Economic cultural, scientific and Economic
       • Improve trading relations - Western tech to be shared with East.
         • Undermined legitimacy of Communism
           • Increase in access to better western goods made East question communism as ideology
           • Trade across Iron Curtain increased knowlledge of stystem with freedom of speech, press, religion, politics - East shown preferable system
     • Basket 3: Human Rights
       • European states - respect rights of citizens. Relax travel restrictions
   • Ostpolik
     • Sometimes refered to as European Detente
     • Brandt overturned the Hallstein Doctrine
     • Improved East-West relations
       • Berlin Agreement: guarenteed West Ger's borders - no invasion from East
   • Jackson Vanik Ammendment
     • Part of 1974 Trade Act
     • Restricted right to US trade to nations which restricted freedom of movement/immigration
       • Clear 'attack' on USSR
         • USSR pull out of trade deal - economy suffers - no US tech
       • Waiver used to exclude China from provisions of J-V
   • Oil Crisis - 1973
     • OPEC - complete Oil embargo on Isreali allies
       • 4X oil price increase within year
         • West still able to respond quickly -
           • Economic recovery cut need for West to pursue detente

2. success?

   • Normalisation
     • Helsinki Accords only pledges - not legally binding.
       • Human Rights especially ignored by USSR
         • KGB suppression of Orlov's monitoring group (had exposed Human rights abuses)
     • Basic Principles Agreement
       • Established framework for discussions
       • contradicted by J-V
   • Economic prosperity
     • Slowed the Arms race - USSR economy couldn't afford
       • Industrial growth fell in USSR in 1970s - 8.2% in 1964 1% in 1979
         • Led to increased imbalance between powers - destabalised
       • Us defence spending down: 1970 - $406 billion, $284 billion 1976 - result of vietnam
     • Jackson Vanik - raised tensions
     • 1974-5 Western imports to USSR up by 96%
   • Avoid Nuclear War
     • SALT I
       • Useful agreements ABM, Basic Principles
         • Stabalised the arms race - closer to parity
       • Created a dialogue
     • SALT II
       • Not able to continue success of SALT I
   • Overall?
     • Stabalised relations Economic consequences favoured US which lead to imbalance
     • Significantly criticised by some in US - handing power to USSR - cheap imports, no benefit to US, Human rights not respected

3. End of Detente

   • 1979 - Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan
     • Carter demanded Soviet withdrawal - looked weak when no response
     • Percieved by US as first step to expansion
     • US fund Mujahadeen - Carter's aim to make war costly for USSR
     • Gave more power to Hawks in US administration - Brzezinski
   • Rise of 'Neo Conservatism' in US prior to Afghan invasion
     • Increased confidence as humiliation of Vietnam fades
     • Iranian Embassy Crisis - islamic militants occupy US embassy in Tehran - US can do nothing - appear impotent in world affairs
   • Soviiet expansion in 3rd World
   • Soviet violation of Helsinki Accords (HR)

4. Impact of Reagan and Thatcher

   • Evil Empire

5. Causes

   • Nixon's policy, but both superpowers want to avoid nuclear war
     • MAD a certainty by 1969 - USSR closed missile gap
   • US Motives
     • Vietnam
       • Withdrawal of troops Nixon's main objective
       • Cost - $66 million/day at height of war. $30billion in 1969
     • Economics
       • Post war boom ending
         • 1970: Inflation 6%
         • Unemployment up more than 6% in early 70s
         • Change in system of exchange rates - 'Bretton Woods' system collapsed - currencies no longer fixed relative values
           • International trade less stable
     • Kissinger
       • Realpolitik: Pursue realistic FP aims (arms reduction) not ideological.
       • Normalisation: negotiation would improve US/USSR relations
   • USSR motives
     • Economics
       • USSR economy 1/6 size of US
       • Increasing demand from public - consumer goods
         • Therefore reduce defence spending & get investment from west
     • Nuclear parity
       • 1969: US 28,000 warheads, USSR 11,000
       • Achieve parity without increasing spending
     • China
       • Sino-Soviet split
       • Sino-US rapproachment
     • 3rd world
       • Brezhnev wanted influnece in 3rd world - didn't want to provoke US whilst doing this