Foreign Policy A2

Foreign Policy A2

1. Falklands War April - June 82

   • 300 miles east off Argentina
     • 'Las Malvinas'
   • (G Friday) April 82 Arg forces land, small British garrison defeated
     • another force landed on South Georgia to south east
       • retaken quickly
   • no clear strategic reason for UK to want them back
     • Arg had limited UK casualties to avoid reason for UK response
   • Foreign Sec Lord Carrington accepts responsibility & resigns
     • but he had warned that an earlier govt decision to cut back military connections with Falklands would risk them
       • govt had withdrawn Endurance ice breaker
         • even Foot called her weak
   • Thatcher assembles war cabinet & naval task force decided upon
     • air + political support needed
       • Tories concerned about sovereignty
     • Lab officially supports govt
       • enemy was right-wing Junta!
         • 83% public supported govt
           • 'The Argies'
     • 10000 men, announced 10th April
       • command of Rear-Admiral Sandy Woodward
       • only made possible by cobbling together remnants of the Battle fleet Invincible & Hermes
         • Hermes had been planned for scrap-yard prior
         • ampibious assault ships e.g. Fearless
         • QE II needed
       • Newsweek cover 'Empire strikes back'
     • 'isolated decision-making now a strength', Morgan
   • Set sail April
     • air campaign precedes May landing
       • Casualties: UK 250 Arg 650 (half when Belgrano sank)
       • US Air Base used on Ascension Island
         • US gifted anti-radar weapons & sidewinder missiles + intel
   • 83 Khaki Election
     • May polls showed 20 point lead over Alliance/Lab
     • but lost 1.5% votes as opposed to 79
       • increase in seats only due to divided left/centre
     • The Murdoch Press reached 'extraordinary levels of distasteful jingoism', Morgan
     • But a thanksgiving service at St Paul's was marked by muted sermon from AB of Cant, Dr Runcie anti-jingo
   • Some opposition from UN Sec Gen who was Peruvian, Cuellar
   • Fighting began on 2 May
     • British nuclear-powered submarine sank Arg Cruiser General Belgrano, killing 360
       • but Belgrano was leaving exclusion zone:(
         • Sun headline 'GOTCHA'
       • 2 days later an Arg Exocet Missile sinks British HMS Sheffield, kills 20
     • 26 May UK Forces land San Carlos Bay on East Falkland
       • disastrous as lack of air cover vs. Arg air attacks
       • Coventry, Ardent, Antelope sunk
       • Welsh Guardsman hit waiting to land in assault on the Sir Galahad at Bluff Cove
       • but defeated Arg poorly trained conscripts
         • Paratroop batallion won in Goose Green despite the loss of their commander Colonel H. Jones
           • captured 1200 troops
     • Final 7k assault on Port Stanley with Gurkhas won on 14 June
       • 14k imprisoned
   • 1200 population
   • Waller describes it as a 'blip in the world order'

2. Special Relationship

   • Reagan held similar right-wing, anti-communist views
     • 'government is the problem', Reagan
       • BUT Reagan left Thatcher out of 2nd meeting with Gorbachev in Reykjavik 11/12 Oct 86
     • Jan 89 Reagan Resigns
       • more formal relationship - Bonn closer to Bush
     • 'Morgan: Thatcher Relied Upon Reagan'
       • Morgan :'effective rapport'
       • US Missile deal in exchange for Trident to update Polaris
         • but Trident cost 10bn & caused protest
           • but her firm stance showed her as tough to Russians e.g. Schmidt lost election in 82 % so did d'Estaing in 81 so she came out as strong
       • let him use bases e.g.Libya April 86 - Upper Heyford
         • was meant to depose Gaddafi but caused civ casualties
   • hostility upon US invasion of Grenada 83
     • against communists
     • but Grenada had same queen & Thatcher had urged against invasion but diplomacy instead
   • US Sec of State Gen Al Haig attempts to settle Falklands annoyed Thatcher
     • US was Argentinian ally but they turned down attempts at peacemaking so congress passed resolutions supporting UK & banning arms sales
   • 79 cruise/Pershing II missiles lay behind increasing CND support in 90s
     • 83 - 200k marched in CND London
       • similar to W. Germany 600k
     • Popular culture: 84 BBC TV Drama Threads of nuclear fallout in British city & The Wind Blows cartoon book by Briggs in 86 shows elderly couple prepped for a nuclear conflict
   • Blair
     • attracted by Clinton 92 middle class campaign
     • 'Third Way',
     • strained relations in 99 Kosovo crisis & Clintons sexual indiscretitions
     • Clinton spoke at 02 Labour conference
     • closer to Bush
       • but Bush dominated by hard-line VP Cheeney & DoD dominated by neo-cons
         • neo-con idea that US must make world safe
       • paid heavy price & Cook says Blair 'is programmed to respect power & not rebel against'
         • contrasts Thatcher badly
         • 11 Sept 01 attacks' Al-Queda will stand shoulder to shoulder with American friends'
     • Colley: 'Deep religious bond' with Bush 'distorted his views away from domestic issues & Eorope'
     • Roberts: 'Breath of fresh air to see Lab stick up for freedom around the world'

3. Cold War

   • 79 USSR invasion of Afghanistan alarmed Thatcher/Reagan
   • Brezhnez Gen Sec died in 82
     • former KGB head Andropov died 15 months after
       • then Chernenko only lasted 13 months
   • Gorbachev was 30 yrs younger & in 85 determined to change country - Perestroika & Glasnost (restructuring & openness)
     • Thatcher told BBC interviewer in Dec 84 that 'I like him, We can do business together.'
       • Thatcher becomes most well known western poltician
         • Reykjavik summit ended in 86 without agreement but did pave way for 87 IRNFT treaty in DC which Thatcher was left out of
           • Gorbachev + Bush announce end Cold War Malta Summit Dec 89, USSR dissolved Dec 91
         • Thatcher didn't 'see through' end of Cold war
     • Poland announces it will hold free elections but Gorbachev doesn't intervene
       • Berlin Wall falls Nov 89
         • Thatcher fails to prevent German reunification, Kohl becomes hero of hour with 80mil pop
       • even when anti-communist trade unionist Lech Walesa won presidency
   • Morgan thinks Thatcher exaggerated her own importance
   • on its last leg anyway
   • UKPM works with POTUS & Polish Pope John Paul II vs. Communism

4. First Gulf War 90-1

   • result of Iraqi invasion of Kuwait (Hussein)
   • Thatcher pushed President bush into intervention
   • annexation of 1 country by another had been unheard of since WW2
     • happened in Aug 90
   • thought of as unsafe for Iraq to control so much oil supply
   • aerial bombardment & ground troops quickly defeated army - could have taken Baghdad but decided not to
     • backed UN resolution
     • Hussein remains leader of Iraq

5. Balkans

   • Titos death 80
     • ethnic Albanian Muslim maj in Kosovo demands province becomes member republic not part of Serbia
       • Serbia has Orthodox Christian Maj
       • leader of Serbia, powerful of six republics, Milosovic wanted greater powers
       • Slovenia + Croatia elect govts with demands for greater autonomy
         • Serbs in Croatia felt vulnerable
           • used to be a maj in united Yugoslavia
   • US thought Bosnian Serbs with Serbian govt alliance were ethnically cleansing non-Serbs so parts of Bosnia could join an enlarged Serbia
     • Blair, Ashdown, Thatcher, Foot all agreed
     • but issues regarded as internal affairs
       • UN stayed out until 99 reanalysis
       • Major/Hurd kept out despite murderous crimes
         • Britain opposed Clinton/Bush international intervention efforts
         • UK analysis changed when in 91 prosperous Croatia (92) & Slovenia declared independence then Macedonia & in 92 Bosnia-Herz declared independence
           • then Bosnia war begins April 92 involved Serbian + Croatian Paramilitary forces
             • international conflict? hence intervention acceptable!
               • news that eastern Muslim Bosnians were being murdered by Serb forces caused NATO bombing campaign in 95 targeting Bosnian Serb Forces
                 • intended to prevent partition & establishment of 'Greater Serbia' including Serb-Maj areas
                   • under Dayton Agreement between Russia, French, UK, German peace settlement
                     • enforced by peacekeepers 95/6
                     • settled in Ohio, treaty signed in Paris Dec 95 to guarantee Bosnian indep & economic support
                     • 1997 Serbia turns attention to Kosovo, Blair persuades Clinton to back further action
                       • 99 - Milosevic pulls forces out & is tried as war criminal
                 • persuaded by Srebrenica
                 • NATO more effective due to unified central command
               • US then convinced .... post Srebrenica
             • Aug 92 Major hosted EU-UN conference in Ldn
               • UN Peacekeepers put in place
                 • Oct 92 Vance-Owen plan
                   • David Owen _ Cyrus Vance
                   • war in Bosnia continues for 3 years & seen as ineffectual due to massacre at Srebrenica July 95
                     • Bosnian Serb forces bypass small Dutch UN force with orders not to intervene & 7000 Bosnian men & boys killed - limits of UN/EU
                       • UN had declared it a 'safe haven'
                         • Bosnian refugees had moved there
             • Vukovar massacre in Nov 91 1130 civilians killed
   • look to lib intv

6. Liberal Interventionism

   • 5 times in 6 years by Blair
   • Cook thinks he acted ethnically
   • Blair before 97 election 'destiny of Britain is to lead other nations'
   • Chicago speech April 99
     • outlined circumstances where it can be legitimate for international community to intervene in internal affairs, must be sure of their case & diplo options exhausted, achievable goals & commitment for long-term rebuilding
     • Foreign office Lawyers worried about international law & UN
     • no more Srebenicas
   • Kosovo crisis being ethnically cleansed by Milosevics Serbs
   • Only casualties in Western forces were 2 helicopter pilots killed in training
     • Blair saw ground troop deployment as model for further intervention
       • Sierra Leone May 00 former colony
         • when rebels took capital Freetown, initially to evacuate foreigners but British forces then supported Un peacekeepers to end civil war by 01
       • Afghanistan 01 after 9/11 caused rapid fall of Tablian govt
       • Seldon: 'Blair became stronger & more assured of his own judgement'

7. Iraq War 03

   • Vice Pres Cheney & Defence Sec Rumsfield saw Iraq as unfinished business from 1st Gulf War
     • inevitable USA would act
   • no 9/11 connection
     • Bush's axis of evil Spring 02 speech showed he wanted 'regime change' in Iraq
   • Blair saw WMDs as existential threat vs. western democracy
     • feted in US as best ally post 9/11
   • convinced Bush to push UN route
     • resulting Sec Council Res 1441 was crap
       • didn't sanction war - France/Russia could claim a breach of 1441 wouldn't give green light for war'
   • Crawford Summit April 02, proclaimed pre-emption
     • 9/11 attack shows no use waiting to be hit if you saw threat coming
   • 24 Sept 02 Report British Govt Intel Services
     • 'Iraq's WMD's'
     • 'some of Iraq's WMD could be ready for use within 45 mins'
       • but only refered to tactical battlefield weapons
         • can't be used vs. west
       • more of British public decided Blair had lied
         • 15th Feb 03 Ldn largest demo in UK History, 2 mil
     • 'WMD programme is active, detailed & growing'
   • 7 March UN Weapons Inspector Hans Blix, head of UN Monitoring Commission, declared he was making progress but needed more time
     • UN resolution Nov 02 had forced Hussein to accept inspections
       • Blair wanted 2nd one but couldn't get it
   • Cook resigned from Govt & Clare Short, Int Devel Sec, stayed until replacement found
   • Consent of parliament not constitutionally necessary but vote won thanks to Tory support but 139 Lab MPs voted against
     • Began 19th March
       • military victory quickly achieved
         • overthrown April 03
           • executed by new govt Iraq in 06
       • Poland + italy' coalition of willing'
   • Critics made aware of New Lab media management skills
     • 'sex up' intel allegations lead to full-scale row with BBC
       • & David Kelly (scientist) sucide
       • allegations started 03
   • US failed to reconstruct nation
     • responsibility denied to Un & lay with US DoD
       • Rumsfield tried to 'De-ba'thifcation' Iraqi society - depriving country of viable bureaucratic infrastructure
       • Sunni/Shia conflict was assumed a non-issue but bexcame one
   • After gulf hussein had been contained by no-fly zones & economic sanctions
   • stop the war march ldn feb 03 1 mil
   • Seldon: 'serious mistakes'
   • Hawsbawn: 'had developed a missionary conviction for saving world by armed interventions, most catastrophically with Bush'

8. Thatcher

   • opposition to trade sanctions on SAF angered African/Asian nations that were high in 79 due to Zimbabwe settlement
     • but the settlement should be credited to Australian PM Fraser & Nyerere of Tanzania + Lord Carrington
     • but Thatcher did agree to cultural boycott of SAF under Gleneagles agreement
   • 89 China agreement on Hong Kong 150 year lease
     • nothing Britain could do to stop ending of ree market according in Morgan
       • Argentina was a 'lesser power'
   • Major Foreign Sec appointment in July 89 created uncertainty & so did his replacement by Hurd 3 months later
   • Aug 79 in Lanc House British govt made loads of concessions to black nationalist
     • Ian Smith's Rhodnesia Front disadvantaged
     • agreed elections would be held despite black guerrilla forces e.g. led by Nkomo & Mugabe
       • then in Nov independence was agreed
       • sanctions would cease from 15 Nov & Soames was sent to act as temp governor
       • British govt suprised by Early 80 election victory for Marxist Mugabe - party got 57 vs. Nkoma's 29
     • but Morgan thinks black African relations improved as Ian Smith was forced off stage
       • Thatchers good relationship with Pres Kaunda of Zambia, struck up at Aug 80 Commonwealth meeting
   • Morgan thinks North Sea oil BoP positive increased her standing

9. Afghanistan 01

   • Taliban govt had allowed Al-Qaeda use of nation for training & planning terror
   • 7 Oct 01, UK joins
     • ratified by UN resolution
   • hoped it would develop into modern democratic state but Taliban + Al-Qaeda leaders fled
     • critics say the Iraq war allowed the Taliban to regroup in 06/7