Global Population Trends and Implications

Global Population Trends and Implications

1. Population Thesis'

   • Malthus
     • Demography starting point
     • Population grows at geometric rates
     • Food production grows at arithmetic rates
     • Population checks (conflict, famine, disease)
   • Boserup
     • Counter-Malthusian argument
     • Population increases necessitate increased inputs of labour + technology
     • Pop. growth = incr. technology use = conversion from extensive to intensive
     • Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians underestimate humans capability
     • Happens at local and global levels
   • Neo-Malthusian
     • Limits to growth not only about food, but energy; coal and other resources
     • We are approaching 'limits to growth'
     • Solution: reduce economic and pop. growth
     • Link between pop. and env. degradation
   • Marx: population
     • Poverty not bc. of population but inequalities
     • Problems from unequal access to resources
     • Increase in pop.
       • Increase in productivity
     • Positive look on pop. growth
       • Bigger population = more labourers = increase in productivity

2. Population projections

   • Difficult to predict
   • Affected by natural disasters, wars. and medical adavances
   • Introduction of population policies
   • Population redistribution - migration, refugees

3. Demography

   • Birth rates - crude birth rates, number per 1,000
   • Death rates - crude death rates, number per 1,00

4. Population dynamics

   • Long history of negligible population growth
   • 18th-century declining death rates - growth Europe + N America
   • 1 billion = early 19th C
   • 2 billion = 1920-1950
   • 7 billion = 31st October 2011
   • 8 billion predicted for 2023

5. Demographic Transition Model

   • 1) High stationary pre-transition phase
     • High birth, high deaths rates. Stationary population
   • 2) Early transition stage
     • Deaths rates decrease, birth rates still increase. Population grows
     • Improved living standards + medical = decline in CDR
   • 3) Mid-Transition stage
     • Birth rates start to decline
     • Improved technology, education, employment - decline in CBR
   • 4) Late transition stage
     • Balances out again - low birth and death No natural pop. growth but growth from migration
     • CDR reaches lowest, pop. growth declines and stabilises

6. Tiffen's Model (2004)

   • Once past a certain point at downward slope, pace accelerates
   • Flow of modernisation = transition from agricultural to manufacture and service labour
     • Transition from rural to urban

7. Crime and Population

   • "Traditional" property crimes committed largely by 10-15 y/o
   • 45% of poor country's pop. can be under 15 y/o
   • "Traditional" property crimes seen as gateway to more serious crimes
   • Must be employment opportunities for when children are older - stop them going into gangs etc.

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