RACE AND ETHNICITY IN VOTING BEHAVIOUR

RACE AND ETHNICITY IN VOTING BEHAVIOUR

1. African American vote

   • overwhelmingly Democrat
     • 2004 - 88% Democrat
       • 2008 - 95% Democrat
         • 2016 - 89% Democrat
     • no Democrat nominee since 1960 has received less than 82% of the black vote
       • when Barry Goldwater voted against the Civil Rights Act, there was a swing in the African American vote towards the Democrats
   • controversies
     • Trump still got a higher proportion of AA votes than Romney and McCain (perhaps to do with Obama being Black)
     • 45% of AA identify as conservative in their philosophy
   • majorities voted for a black Democrat president, but millions fewer of them voted for a white Democratic president

2. Hispanic vote

   • 2008 - 67% Democrat
     • 2012 - 71% Democrat
       • 2016 - 65% Democrat
         • 2016 - 25% Trump
           • Republicans in 2016 were keen to focus on this group as it is a growing population
             • 2044 predicted to be a majority minority
           • Trumps building a wall did appeal to some Hispanics who immigrated to avoid the crime, violence etc. Also the competition for jobs in America increases with more latino labour workers.
   • Explain why the Hispanic vote is becoming more important in US elections 10 marks
     • growing block of US voters, often Spanish-speaking and Catholic
     • Demographic factors such as the increase in the Hispanic population due to immigration and birth rates
     • Their concentration in vital swing states such as Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico and states with high EC votes such as Florida
     • They can be important ‘swing voters’ in elections
       • especially on social issues such as abortion/same-sex marriage, which attracted more social conservative Hispanics to the Republicans in 2004 (up to 44% of the vote)
       • 2012, attracted back to the Democrats as the party of minority rights, welfare and supporters of the ‘Dream Act’
     • increasing importance shown through campaign strategies
       • Republican focus on Hispanic candidates such as Marco Rubio in Florida and Ted Cruz in Texas.
     • demographic evidence as well as statistical evidence from recent elections relating this increasingly crucial block of voters to party success
       • Hispanic block often labelled the ‘Sleeping Giant’ of US voting behaviour

3. White vote

   • Of 676 counties that voted for Obama, almost a third voted for Trump in 2016. On average, these counties were more than 80% white.
   • white racists who had not voted in 2012 turned out in 2016, while white non-racists who had voted in 2012 stayed home in 2016
   • 2008 - 55% Republican
     • 2012 - 59% Republican
       • 2016 - 57% Republican

4. Consider the importance of race and ethnicity as factors influencing US voting behaviour. 10 marks

   • The black vote has been overwhelmingly Democratic whilst white voters are more likely to vote Republican.
     • Reasons for the high black vote for the Democrats include their greater commitment to civil rights, affirmative action and welfare spending to support poorer minorities.
   • The white vote is less “solidaristic” than the black vote.
     • more likely to swing??
   • Hispanics are an important block 'sleeping giant'
     • important ‘swing voters’ in elections
   • 1968 Richard Nixon's Southern strategy was designed to draw white Southern voters away from the Democratic Party
     • By the 1990s Bill Clinton was winning more than 80% of the black vote
   • white vote is already less significant than ever before
     • Mitt Romney won 59% of white votes and yet lost the election
       • majority minority future
   • CONCLUDE it is one of many other primacy factors that influence voting behaviour. Hard to choose between race and other socio economic factors