Elections

Elections

1. Invisible primaries

   • period between candidates declaring an intention to run for president and the first contests of the primaries season
   • importance
     • don't have party support at this stage
       • gain recognition
       • raise money
         • donations
       • put together necessary organisation
     • often high coalition between who 'wins' invisible primary and the presidency
       • NOT 2008 OBAMA VS CLINTON
     • Historically conventional wisdom has been that it was important to end invisible primaries as the front runner
       • BUT- '08' Clinton was 15 points above OBAMA
         • BUT- '04' Democrat front runner Dean wasted in primaries
       • momemtum arguably more important
     • 2012 SIGNIFICANCE= Invisible primaries stage saw a number of apparently well-qualified candidates drop out (Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie)
     • 2016 SIGNIFICANCE Bush was damaged in debates, lost his front runner status and dropped out early. Sanders momentum is reducing the gap in the polls from 45% to 4% point gap just before Iowa might have been significant but ended up not changing the result
       • Trump went from outsider to a realistic candidate
   • What does it include
     • TV debates
       • 2015-16: 11 Democrat debates and 13 Republican ones
       • Can be significant: Oct 07 Clinton fluffed an answer on immigration reform
       • Jeb Bush 2015-16 was favroite at the start but dropped to 5th after the debate
     • formal announcement
       • 2008 first to announce Dennis Kucinich from Ohio (368 days before first primary)
       • 2016 Jeb Bush announced in december 2014 that he would 'actively explore the possibility of running for president'
     • opinion polls
       • support for candidates is demonstrated principally by opinion polls
         • state based/regional/national
         • see how candidates of one party stacks up with another party
           • Jan 2015 Clinton 45 points ahead for the democrates nomination. Huckabee and Bush close for Republican.
             • Most importantly TRUMP was no where near.
     • books
       • most succesfull people do
       • TRUMP- 'Crippled America: How to make America great again'
         • became his slogan
         • Hillary Clinton- 'Hard Choices'
     • money raising
       • Candidates need to accumulate a large enough 'WAR CHEST' to be taken seriously
         • Clinton $180 million, Cruz $100 million, Sanders $96 million
       • but can be overstated
         • TRUMP- only $27 million and gained nomination
     • State events & visits
       • some states only
         • Iowa- Republican Ames straw poll- fundraising dinner at which Republican candidate make speeches
           • but winner does always go onto with the election
             • '07 romney won ('11- romney came 7th)
       • Democrates- annual Jefferson-Jackson day dinner. particularly impressive speech by Obama helped propel his campaign
       • Iowa and New Hampshire in the invisible primaries in 2015-16 got a total of 1700 visits
         • first once to release results

2. Electoral College

   • established by the FF to elect the president indirectly
   • They meet in their state to cast their ballots.
   • Each state has a certain number of Electoral college votes which is the same as the representation in congress
     • each state has 2 senators plus their number of representatives
       • lowest number of electoral college votes by any state is 3 (WYOMING)
       • Whereas California has 55
       • 538 total so candidate needs 270 to win
   • popular vote is counted in each state and the winner of that takes the electoral college votes of that state
   • Criticism
     • small states are overrepresented
     • swing states have increased importance
     • winner takes all system distorts the result
     • Unfair to national third parties
     • Rogue electors
       • illegal in 29 states
         • 2016 = 7
           • most in recent yers but never changed result
   • Strengths
     • Preserves the voice of the small population states
     • Promotes a 2 horse race
     • requires candidates to concentrate on key groups of states and cover all regions of the country
   • Possible reforms
     • The maine system (District System)
       • adopted by Nebraska in 2008
         • more proportional
           • may help 3rd parties
     • Proportional System
       • electoral college votes are chosen in proportion
         • favors smaller parties
           • very unlikely to win popular vote and lose
             • reduces importance of swing states