PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY

1. Probability Scales

   • Random
     • If a person is chosen at random it means every person has equal chance of being chosen
   • Probability
     • In maths, probability means how something is likely to happen
       • Probability is often shown on a scale with impossible at one end and certain at the other

2. How the theory works?

   • Experiments and Games
   • Playing a card game
     • A pack of playing cards have 4 suits
       • There are two red suits, diamonds and hearts
         • There are two black suits, spades and clubs
           • There are two joker cards in a pack
             • Each suit has 13 cards
               • Because each suit has 13 and there are 4 suits, it means that there are 52 suit cards and 2 jokers bringing the total to 54 cards

3. When theory doesn't help

   • Relative Frequency
     • Dean estimates the probability of throwing a six with his dice
       • He says that it is 35/100
         • This type of estimation is called relative frequency

4. Symbols used with probability

   • /
     • This is used with fractions
   • (P)
     • This means probability

5. HOW PROBABILITY IS HELPING IN "CLIMATE ACTION (SDG-13)"

   • Probability and statistics play a crucial role in addressing Climate Action (SDG-13) by helping scientists, policymakers, and organizations understand, predict, and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Here are some ways probability is used in climate action:
     • Climate Modeling and Predictions: Probability is a key element in climate models, which use probabilistic methods to predict future climate conditions and quantify uncertainty, thereby enhancing our understanding of potential outcomes.
       • Risk Assessment: Probability is crucial for assessing extreme weather events and climate change impacts, guiding disaster preparedness and response strategies, and assessing potential impacts on sectors like agriculture and water resources.
         • Monitoring and Evaluation: Probability aids in climate monitoring by analyzing data to detect trends and human-induced changes, while evaluating the effectiveness of climate interventions and policies.
           • Communication:Probability plays a crucial role in conveying the risks of climate change to the public and stakeholders. It employs terms such as likelihoods and confidence intervals to express uncertainties and forecast potential impacts.