Key Issue 3

Key Issue 3

1. The Demographic Transition

   • a process of change in a society's population from high CBR and CDR to low NIR
   • 4 stages
     • every country is in one of them
     • STAGE 1
       • Very high birth and death rates produce virtually no long-term natural increase
       • Most of history (until Industrial Revolution
       • No more countries in stage 1
       • hunting and gathering
     • STAGE 2
       • Rapidly declining death rates and very high birth rates produce very high natural increase
       • entered in Industrial Revolution
         • more food and wealth, healthier and more sanitary
         • spread to other areas later (current developing countries)
           • 1950's
           • due to the medical revolution
             • spread medical practices to developing countries, bringing them into stage 2
     • STAGE 3
       • Birth rates rapidly decline, death rates continue to decline, and NIR begins to moderate
         • CBR suddenly drops
           • still growing because the CDR is low
           • less deaths = smaller need for more children
           • induce smaller birth rate
             • ex. China's one child policy
         • gap between birth and death narrows
       • living in cities rather than on farms
         • urban families are smaller
       • 1900- 1950 in America
     • STAGE 4
       • Very low birth and death rates produce virtually no long-term natural increase and possible a decrease
         • NIR=0 Called zero population growth
           • Can sometimes occur when CBR is slightly higher than CDR
           • TFR of 2.1 = ZPG
         • women work and get educated
         • birth control
         • Population pyramid looks like a column
           • ex. Denmark
   • Declining Birth Rates
     • Lowering birth rates through education and health care
       • more women in school = more working women
         • understand reproduction
       • better health care allows for more infants to live
         • IMR decreases
         • women will limit children
     • Lowering birth rates through contraception
       • most effective to distribute more of them cheaply and quickly
       • some cultures disagree
       • not always used in developing countries

2. Malthus on Overpopulation

   • food grows arithmetically, population grows exponentially
     • people will outnumber food sources
       • occur if population is not checked naturally
   • some people still think that his views are correct
     • neo- malthusians
       • 1. While Malthus was living, the world was in stage 2
         • now we have innovative technology and a larger population
           • larger because of medical technology
             • greater threat than it once was because there are even more people and the same issues
       • 2. Resources include more than just food
         • People today also need energy sources
     • some disagree
       • resources are not fixed, they are expanding
       • larger populations stimulate economic growth= more food
         • global hunger is due uneven spread of food
       • food productions has actually increased recently
         • better technology
       • population has increased slower than resources

3. Population Futures

   • population will grow, yet at a much slower rate
     • future population depends on fertility
   • STAGE 5
     • big breaks: drop in death then drop in birth
     • women are having fewer children
       • lower TFR
         • lower CBR
     • CDR is greater than CBR