The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model

1. A model that describes a sequence of changes in relationship between the Br and Dr

2. Based on changes in the natural increase in industrialised countries in North America and Westernised Europe

3. Suggests that the popn. growth for all countries can be sorted into 5 stages

4. Stage 1

   • Br and Dr are high, 35+/1000
   • High death rates caused by...
     • Infant mortality
     • No birth control
     • Child Labour
     • Disease
     • Famine
     • Poor Hygene
     • Little Medical Knowledge
   • No one is at stage 1

5. Stage 2

   • Br high 35+/1000
   • Dr falling 20/1000
   • Rapid population growth
   • High birth rate due to:
     • Lack of family planning
     • Social and religious pressure to have children
   • Fall caused by
     • Medical care
     • Sanitation and water supply
     • Infrastructure
     • Decreased child mortality
   • Ethiopia Br:43 Dr:11

6. Stage 3

   • Br falling : 20/1000
     • Dr still falling: 15 or lower/1000
       • Population growth slows down
   • Birth Rate down because
     • Family planning and better healthcare
     • Less pressure to have large families
     • Increased industrialisation and urbanisation
     • Incentives for small families
     • Emancipation of women
     • India: Br: 20/1000 Dr:7/1000

7. Stage 4

   • Low Br 15/1000 and Dr 12/1000
     • Population growth low and fluctuating
   • Population may change due to economy (recession)
   • Australia, BR: 12/1000 and DR: 7/1000
   • USA BR: 14/1000 and DR: 8/1000
   • UK BR: 12/1000 and DR: 9/1000

8. Stage 5

   • Br is now lower then the DR
     • Negative growth
     • Population in decline
     • Causes
       • Urbanisation
       • Older first time mums
       • More childless couples
       • More same sex couples
       • Increasing death rate as popn. ages
       • Popn. decline offset by immigration
   • Germany BR 8/1000 DR: 11/1000
   • Japan BR: 11/1000 DR: 16/1000